Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42ff…45a1 sports 154 markets active 9h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$14 (-5%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate69%98W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$3
crypto 33% −$17
other 20% $0
politics 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +10.8% +0.2% 73% 56% +0.6%
≤30d 142 -1.7% -11.1% 69% 42% -14.1%
≤90d 142 -1.7% -11.1% 69% 42% -14.1%
all 142 -1.7% -11.1% 69% 42% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 42% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 23% -22.3%
15% -27.3% 16% -29.8%
20% -34.5% 11% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses98 / 44
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)142 / 154
History coverage11d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+87%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+38%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $1 +$2 +152%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 +$1 +32%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +250%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1 $0 +39%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 -5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 −$1 -49%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -75%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 $0 +12%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$1 +82%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 $0 +7%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $3 $0 +2%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $6 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $2 +$1 +27%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 09 $3 $0 +4%
Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 09 $6 $0 +6%
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 09 $2 $0 -22%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 09 $1 −$1 -63%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax Jun 09 $1 $0 -24%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $1 $0 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -0%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 09 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $1 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 83¢ $1 11h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $1 12h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $2 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 85¢ $1 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $1 21h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 56¢ $1 30h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 76¢ $1 31h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 31h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $2 32h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $1 32h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $1 32h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 32h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 89¢ $2 33h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $1 34h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $1 41h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 91¢ $1 41h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 41¢ $1 42h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 71¢ $1 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 81¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 90¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.08 · official $11.08 (match) · 330 history records