Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:40:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
42 0x42fc…0808 sports 50 markets active 3h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,053 (+22%) realized +$1,054 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate55%27W / 22L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days+$422
14 days+$728
30 days+$986
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$1,238
other 5% −$222
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +35.6% +22.7% 67% 56% +37.5%
≤30d 31 +24.7% +12.8% 58% 55% +20.7%
≤90d 49 +12.9% +2.2% 55% 49% +9.9%
all 49 +12.9% +2.2% 55% 49% +9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.2% 49% +9.9%
10% -7.6% 49% -0.6%
15% -16.5% 47% -10.2%
20% -24.7% 47% -19.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$83 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized+$1,054
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses27 / 22
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage84d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Bianca Andreescu Bianca Andreescu 55¢ 55¢ $114 $113 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 24 $102 −$97 -95%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Travaglia vs Yi Zhou Jun 24 $116 +$117 +101%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Erika Andreeva vs Kayla Day Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gauthier Onclin vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 23 $86 −$85 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $87 +$158 +180%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Draper Jun 23 $87 +$4 +5%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina Jun 22 $115 +$124 +108%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $88 +$127 +146%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $116 +$89 +76%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $88 +$247 +281%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $118 −$117 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $116 +$111 +96%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $88 −$87 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $88 −$87 -98%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $117 +$119 +101%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $118 +$119 +101%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $88 +$67 +76%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 09 $118 +$146 +124%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Halys/Herbert vs Helioevaara/Patten Jun 04 $87 −$87 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 01 $89 −$87 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Camila Osorio May 31 $89 +$76 +86%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys May 31 $89 +$94 +105%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 31 $89 +$154 +172%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 30 $89 −$87 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 30 $89 −$88 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 30 $89 −$88 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Adam Walton May 29 $89 +$73 +83%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe May 29 $120 +$155 +129%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Emma Navarro May 28 $118 +$106 +90%
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Claire Liu May 27 $89 −$87 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik May 26 $89 −$87 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Leylah Fernandez May 21 $89 −$87 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Ann Li May 21 $89 −$87 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Michael Zheng vs Stefano Travaglia May 19 $88 −$87 -99%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Katerina Siniakova May 18 $89 +$105 +119%
Hamburg European Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alex de Minaur May 18 $89 +$142 +158%
Geneva Open, Qualification: Kilian Feldbausch vs Nishesh Basavareddy May 17 $117 +$111 +95%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia (Doubles): Bucsa/Melichar vs Gauff/McNally May 15 $117 +$3 +2%
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list May 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Rublev vs. Basilashvili: Match O/U 21.5 May 13 $119 +$99 +83%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 12 $59 −$25 -43%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Dino Prizmic May 12 $120 +$198 +165%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Daniil Medvedev May 12 $101 $0 +0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Mirra Andreeva May 12 $119 −$118 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fok May 11 $90 −$88 -98%
Valencia vs. Saski Baskonia May 11 $164 +$46 +28%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jessica Bouzas Manei May 09 $101 +$63 +62%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Federica Urgesi vs Veronik May 05 $59 −$59 -99%
Credit One Charleston Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Diana Shnaider Apr 02 $86 −$85 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Bianca Andreesc BUY Bianca Andreescu 55¢ $115 3h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 2¢ $2 8h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 2¢ $2 8h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 2¢ $0 8h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 2¢ $1 8h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 2¢ $0 8h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Erika Andreeva vs Kayla Day BUY Erika Andreeva 40¢ $1 32h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Erika Andreeva vs Kayla Day BUY Erika Andreeva 40¢ $1 32h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gauthier Onclin vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Gauthier Onclin 48¢ $64 32h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Erika Andreeva vs Kayla Day BUY Erika Andreeva 40¢ $13 32h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Travaglia vs Yi Zhou BUY Yi Zhou 49¢ $116 32h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gauthier Onclin vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Gauthier Onclin 48¢ $1 32h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gauthier Onclin vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Gauthier Onclin 48¢ $21 32h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 35¢ $87 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina BUY McCartney Kessler 48¢ $30 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina BUY McCartney Kessler 48¢ $66 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Draper BUY Jack Draper 47¢ $87 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina BUY McCartney Kessler 48¢ $20 3d
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 56¢ $116 3d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 40¢ $88 3d
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 26¢ $51 8d
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 55¢ $32 8d
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 55¢ $86 8d
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 26¢ $2 8d
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 26¢ $35 8d
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 51¢ $59 8d
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 51¢ $36 9d
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 51¢ $10 9d
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 51¢ $1 9d
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 51¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.81 · official $112.81 (match) · 122 history records