Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:23:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
42 0x42fb…4f80 sports 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$74 (+4%) realized +$115 · open −$41
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%14W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$169
7 days+$17
14 days+$82
30 days+$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$200
other 47% −$71
world 2% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -15.4% -23.5% 43% 43% -8.3%
≤30d 26 -7.9% -16.7% 54% 50% -2.5%
≤90d 26 -7.9% -16.7% 54% 50% -2.5%
all 26 -7.9% -16.7% 54% 50% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 50% -2.5%
10% -24.7% 42% -11.9%
15% -32.0% 35% -20.4%
20% -38.6% 23% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$35 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$115
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses14 / 12
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage14d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 49¢ 28¢ $98 $55 −$43 (-44%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $40 $43 +$2 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $108 +$30 +28%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $103 +$77 +74%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $57 +$21 +37%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $23 −$11 -48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $111 +$53 +48%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$18 -90%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 +$46 +221%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $99 +$54 +55%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $28 −$28 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $37 +$23 +61%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $32 −$23 -72%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $181 −$153 -84%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $99 +$83 +84%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -76%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$41 -80%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $22 −$11 -49%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $99 +$56 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $60 −$54 -90%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $44 +$22 +50%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $88 +$14 +16%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $41 +$6 +14%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $252 +$24 +9%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $237 +$65 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 20m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $99 56m
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Haiti 51¢ $5 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Haiti 51¢ $43 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Haiti 51¢ $0 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Haiti 46¢ $0 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Haiti 46¢ $8 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Haiti 46¢ $35 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Haiti 30¢ $57 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Brazil 70¢ $46 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 77¢ $28 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 77¢ $23 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $180 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $52 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 78¢ $77 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $57 23h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 24h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 74¢ $163 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $111 26h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $12 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $26 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.73 · official $97.75 (match) · 102 history records