Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:52:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
42 0x42fa…ba85 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+2%) realized +$22 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$426now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$6
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$10
crypto 32% +$3
world 14% +$14
politics 6% $0
culture 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.9% -8.7% 67% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 5 +0.9% -8.7% 80% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 7 +3.0% -6.8% 86% 14% -7.2%
all 7 +3.0% -6.8% 86% 14% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 14% -7.2%
10% -15.7% 0% -16.1%
15% -23.9% 0% -24.2%
20% -31.4% 0% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×8.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×49.95 per $1 lost it wins $49.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$426
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage96d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $424 $426 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 19 $50 $0 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 19 $125 +$2 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 19 $187 +$4 +2%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 09 $77 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 05 $294 +$4 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? May 02 $86 +$14 +16%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? May 02 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $426.25 · official $426.25 (match) · 26 history records