Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:16:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42f8…8c6b world 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$47 (-0%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%29W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$18
14 days−$13
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$42
politics 25% +$2
other 16% −$1
sports 13% −$6
economics 5% $0
crypto 3% −$1
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.8% -12.0% 22% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 31 -1.2% -10.6% 29% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 90 -1.3% -10.7% 29% 0% -9.8%
all 106 -1.1% -10.5% 27% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses29 / 77
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 107
History coverage318d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 73¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $115 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $104 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $234 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $71 −$17 -24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $49 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $109 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $160 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $306 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $121 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $244 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $133 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $189 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $54 +$4 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $252 −$2 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $802 +$3 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $120 −$2 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $208 +$3 +2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $130 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $129 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $123 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $22 $0 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 24 $117 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $127 −$12 -9%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $128 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $12 −$1 -6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $72 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $139 −$12 -9%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $11 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $9 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 20 $80 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 18 $50 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $3 $0 -5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $150 +$1 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $271 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $139 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $9 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $4 −$2 -61%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $156 +$2 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $139 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $140 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $184 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $153 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $140 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $139 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $277 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $291 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $159 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $115 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $115 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $104 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $104 14h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $115 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $115 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 22¢ $39 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 25¢ $30 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 25¢ $14 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $12 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $37 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $49 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $60 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $49 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $109 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $50 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $49 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $66 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $107 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 38¢ $108 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 39¢ $111 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $15 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 18¢ $24 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 18¢ $2 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $119 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $121 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.68 · official $0.00 (match) · 433 history records