Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:38:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
42 0x42f7…478e crypto 6 markets active 1d ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-104%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -99% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -99% what you keep after slip
Net edge-99%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$3
other 30% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-99.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -98.4% -98.5% 0% 0% -99.3%
≤30d 6 -99.2% -99.3% 0% 0% -99.6%
≤90d 6 -99.2% -99.3% 0% 0% -99.6%
all 6 -99.2% -99.3% 0% 0% -99.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -99.3% 0% -99.6%
10% -99.3% 0% -99.7%
15% -99.4% 0% -99.7%
20% -99.5% 0% -99.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -99% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage13d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $0 $0 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 31 $0 $0 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 32h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 35h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $0 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records