Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:31:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42f7…c8f6 crypto 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$106 (-22%) realized −$106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate25%41W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$77
14 days−$168
30 days−$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$168
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -43.6% -49.0% 14% 11% -55.4%
≤30d 164 -31.3% -37.8% 25% 21% -47.3%
≤90d 164 -31.3% -37.8% 25% 21% -47.3%
all 164 -31.3% -37.8% 25% 21% -47.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.8% 21% -47.3%
10% -43.8% 17% -52.3%
15% -49.2% 15% -56.9%
20% -54.2% 12% -61.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses41 / 123
Open positions0
Markets (closed)164 / 164
History coverage14d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 164 Trades
no open positions (117 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$11 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$23 +2173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$11 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $22 −$11 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $22 −$10 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 259 history records