trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pete Carroll win NFL Coach of the Year? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pete Carroll win NFL Coach of the Year? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Feb 10 | $1 | $0 | -11% |
| Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Feb 06 | $1 | $0 | -20% |
| Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31? | Feb 02 | $22,099 | −$8 | -0% |
| Human moon landing in 2026? | Feb 01 | $44,899 | +$30 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤90d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| all | 5 | -26.2% | -33.2% | 20% | 0% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -33.2% | 0% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -39.6% | 0% | -18.2% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -45.5% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -50.8% | 0% | -33.3% |