Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:26:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
42 0x42f1…0bf8 politics 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 251d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-2%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 251d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$2
other 3% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 6 -16.8% -24.7% 0% 0% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 0% -11.6%
10% -31.9% 0% -20.1%
15% -38.5% 0% -27.8%
20% -44.5% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$3 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage251d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $189 $189 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 92¢ 90¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $209 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $198 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $208 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $188 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Semisi Sika be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the electio Oct 14 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.33 · official $203.33 (match) · 13 history records