Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:44:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42ef…1576 sports 501 markets active 9h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$12,681 (+4%) realized +$12,660 · open +$21
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate58%288W / 209L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$617per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Fees−$545est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$3,274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$107
7 days−$406
14 days−$250
30 days+$2,072
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$8,424
other 41% +$21,236
world 1% +$184
economics 0% +$1
tech 0% −$15
weather 0% −$10
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +7.8% -2.5% 71% 68% -12.1%
≤30d 88 +7.2% -3.0% 65% 62% -4.7%
≤90d 389 -20.7% -28.3% 47% 44% -26.6%
all 497 -2.2% -11.5% 58% 56% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 56% -5.7%
10% -20.0% 50% -14.7%
15% ← realistic here -27.7% 42% -23.0%
20% -34.8% 26% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$664) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$381 vs −$463 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$3,274
Realized+$12,660
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses288 / 209
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$545
Open positions4
Markets (closed)497 / 501
History coverage139d
Avg bet$617
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 497 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? No 74¢ 74¢ $3,157 $3,178 +$21 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 52¢ 52¢ $71 $71 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 24¢ 24¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 80¢ 81¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $715 +$97 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $355 +$556 +156%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $525 −$524 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $13 +$7 +59%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $277 +$143 +52%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $348 +$122 +35%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $693 −$693 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1,161 +$459 +40%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $100 +$47 +47%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,854 +$2,141 +116%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $510 +$559 +109%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 12 $230 −$229 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $176 −$173 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $56 +$26 +46%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $115 +$51 +45%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,528 −$1,528 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,115 +$131 +12%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $319 +$77 +24%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $302 +$212 +70%
Will Goiás EC vs. Grêmio Novorizontino end in a draw? Jun 11 $39 +$18 +47%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1,261 +$125 +10%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? Jun 10 $2,044 −$2,038 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 10 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Fortaleza EC end in a draw? Jun 10 $42 +$19 +44%
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? Jun 10 $43 +$18 +42%
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw? Jun 10 $171 +$23 +14%
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 09 $643 +$123 +19%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2,377 +$178 +8%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $147 −$147 -100%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $307 +$368 +120%
Will Mozambique win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2,986 +$405 +14%
Will Angola win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $29 −$29 -99%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 09 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $465 −$465 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 08 $90 −$90 -100%
Will UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF end in a draw? Jun 08 $25 +$10 +42%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $244 −$244 -100%
Will Romania vs. Wales end in a draw? Jun 07 $108 +$45 +42%
Will San Marino vs. Bangladesh end in a draw? Jun 06 $351 +$157 +45%
Spain vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $30 +$64 +216%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $95 +$169 +178%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $411 −$402 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $12 +$22 +188%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 02 $454 +$163 +36%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 02 $1,253 −$50 -4%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $45 +$44 +99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 02 $184 +$110 +60%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $212 +$88 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $72 8h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $51 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $3 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $6 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $14 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $15 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $5 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $57 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $20 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $3 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $14 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $8 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $49 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $6 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $28 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $3 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $28 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $3 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $28 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $3 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $6 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $3 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $3 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $138 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $28 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $3 15h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $57 15h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $3 15h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $13 15h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $28 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,273.97 · official $3,273.97 (match) · 3365 history records