Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:54:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
42 0x42e6…c8f5 other 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$28 (+0%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate22%12W / 42L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$355per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 70% −$13
politics 16% −$9
other 11% +$5
crypto 1% −$3
sports 1% +$46
world 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.8% -11.2% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 10 -0.5% -10.0% 20% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 43 +7.6% -2.6% 23% 14% -8.2%
all 54 +5.9% -4.2% 22% 11% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 11% -9.4%
10% -13.4% 11% -18.1%
15% -21.7% 11% -26.0%
20% -29.4% 11% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×4.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses12 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage599d
Avg bet$355
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $157 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in June? Jun 15 $67 −$3 -5%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $132 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 05 $9 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 05 $88 $0 +0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $15 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 27 $32 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $108 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 11 $120 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $118 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $120 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $238 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $123 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $118 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $120 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $122 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $113 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $118 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $117 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $120 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $118 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $115 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $127 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $123 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Apr 15 $122 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $117 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $122 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $122 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $6 +$9 +165%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $5 +$7 +146%
Stars vs. Flyers Apr 06 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 06 $20 $0 +1%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 06 $40 +$1 +3%
Suns vs. Magic Apr 06 $24 +$20 +80%
Wizards vs. Jazz Mar 27 $23 +$38 +163%
Kraken vs. Panthers Mar 25 $24 +$19 +82%
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones: O/U 145.5 Mar 24 $18 +$17 +95%
Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 06 $77 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $13,621 −$13 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 01 $26 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $17 $0 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $4 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $65 1h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 9h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 10h
Will Solana reach $100 in June? SELL No 95¢ $63 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 4d
Will Solana reach $100 in June? BUY No 99¢ $67 5d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $13 12d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $13 12d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 13d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 13d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 23d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 23d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $15 23d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $15 23d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $18 23d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 99¢ $9 23d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $18 24d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 27d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 27d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $24 28d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $24 28d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $16 29d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $16 30d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $88 31d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $108 31d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $108 31d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Toronto Blue Jays 55¢ $7 35d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $119 38d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $120 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.38 · official $65.38 (match) · 235 history records