Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:16:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
42 0x42e6…8e78 other 231 markets active 2h ago coverage 716d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$539 (+2%) realized +$556 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate54%124W / 107L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$421now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$144
7 days−$118
14 days−$119
30 days+$272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 41% +$453
crypto 29% +$187
other 21% −$184
sports 6% −$55
world 2% +$94
politics 1% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -53.4% -57.8% 25% 0% -25.5%
≤30d 20 -11.7% -20.1% 50% 25% -4.1%
≤90d 53 -10.2% -18.7% 55% 26% -4.7%
all 231 -0.1% -9.6% 54% 36% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 36% -8.4%
10% -18.2% 26% -17.2%
15% -26.1% 19% -25.2%
20% -33.4% 14% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +5% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$39 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

716d coverage
Net worth$421
Realized+$556
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses124 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)231 / 231
History coverage716d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m? Yes 68¢ 60¢ $246 $218 −$29 (-12%)
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $191 $203 +$12 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 44m? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 40m? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m Jun 19 $122 −$24 -19%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? Jun 15 $429 +$25 +6%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m? Jun 09 $174 +$4 +2%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 09 $422 +$23 +5%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 09 $656 +$264 +40%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? Jun 07 $339 −$291 -86%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 07 $43 +$3 +6%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 07 $672 +$201 +30%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m? Jun 06 $30 −$6 -20%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m? Jun 06 $56 −$8 -14%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 25m May 31 $52 −$14 -28%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 2 May 31 $26 −$1 -4%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? May 31 $420 −$19 -5%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? May 30 $221 +$1 +0%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9.5m? May 29 $157 +$70 +44%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 24 $52 +$8 +16%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 23 $36 −$16 -43%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 23 $496 +$173 +35%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs NRG (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 18 $24 −$23 -98%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m? May 17 $134 −$33 -24%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m? May 16 $6 $0 -2%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m? May 16 $35 −$2 -5%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and May 14 $182 +$14 +8%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m May 10 $176 +$4 +2%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $62 +$18 +29%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m? May 10 $37 +$26 +70%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m May 10 $122 −$78 -64%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and May 09 $35 −$23 -64%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 45m and May 08 $132 +$7 +5%
Will "Animal Farm" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 3.5m? May 04 $80 +$53 +66%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 5th Weekend Box Office be between May 03 $11 −$4 -41%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m? May 03 $18 −$8 -42%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7 May 02 $101 −$3 -3%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t May 02 $96 +$8 +8%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $94 $0 +0%
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 100m? Apr 27 $243 +$192 +79%
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 95m? Apr 25 $34 −$23 -69%
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m? Apr 25 $1,061 +$69 +6%
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 90m? Apr 24 $29 −$17 -60%
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 75m? Apr 23 $193 +$5 +3%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between Apr 21 $380 +$40 +11%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between Apr 19 $238 −$103 -44%
Will "Lee Cronin's The Mummy" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Apr 18 $277 +$11 +4%
Will "Lee Cronin's The Mummy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15 Apr 17 $87 −$47 -55%
Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? Apr 15 $453 +$95 +21%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less tha Apr 13 $252 +$47 +19%
Will "Project Hail Mary" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 22m? Apr 11 $164 +$8 +5%
Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 11 Apr 10 $100 +$13 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 62¢ $100 1h
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than SELL Yes 99¢ $101 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 76¢ $24 13h
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than SELL Yes 96¢ $24 13h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 75¢ $51 16h
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than SELL Yes 95¢ $51 16h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 72¢ $71 17h
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than SELL Yes 96¢ $72 17h
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than BUY Yes 94¢ $340 42h
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than BUY Yes 92¢ $46 44h
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than BUY Yes 92¢ $46 44h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m SELL Yes 32¢ $99 44h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 33¢ $17 45h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 51¢ $53 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 41¢ $41 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 23¢ $12 3d
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? BUY No 94¢ $429 6d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 SELL Yes 1¢ $3 12d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 SELL Yes 2¢ $0 12d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 SELL Yes 2¢ $5 12d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 SELL Yes 3¢ $3 12d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 SELL Yes 2¢ $3 12d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 SELL Yes 2¢ $5 12d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 BUY Yes 3¢ $9 13d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 BUY Yes 3¢ $6 13d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 BUY Yes 5¢ $12 13d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 BUY Yes 4¢ $11 13d
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m? SELL No 99¢ $40 13d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 BUY Yes 6¢ $14 13d
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m? SELL No 99¢ $14 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $420.62 · official $413.42 · 1037 history records