Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:17:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42e5…4e33 crypto 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 567d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate60%34W / 23L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$6
politics 47% −$4
other 3% +$8
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 57 +1.2% -8.5% 60% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 2% -9.6%
10% -17.2% 2% -18.2%
15% -25.2% 2% -26.1%
20% -32.6% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

567d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses34 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage567d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $40 end of April? May 06 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $500 in January? Feb 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $230 in November? Dec 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $140 end of November? Dec 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 08 $2,042 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 08 $2,168 −$2 -0%
Will Opensea launch a token by October 31? Nov 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? Sep 20 $10 +$8 +82%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in August? Sep 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin close above $95K on July 31? Aug 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jul 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $10 before June? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $1800 on Apr 18? Apr 20 $1 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 16 $4 $0 +1%
Will Trump post 180-199 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 03 $2 $0 +0%
Solana above $200 on February 21? Feb 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 20 $818 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 20 $846 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 20 $826 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 20 $860 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 20 $848 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin above $105,000 on February 7? Feb 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,500 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Was Trump hacked? Jan 21 $2 $0 +0%
Trump in jail before inauguration? Jan 21 $2 $0 +0%
Ripple above $2.40 on January 17? Jan 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Palisades wildfire spread to Malibu by Sunday? Jan 14 $2 $0 +0%
Fact Check: Connection between New Orleans and Las Vegas attacks? Jan 12 $1 $0 +0%
Dogecoin above $0.36 on January 10? Jan 12 $1 $0 +2%
Cybertruck explosion perp arrested by Sunday? Jan 06 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3? Jan 04 $2 $0 +0%
Lakers vs. Hawks Dec 04 $10 $0 -3%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Dec 04 $12 $0 -0%
Suns vs. Heat Dec 04 $21 $0 +2%
Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-05? Dec 04 $29 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-07? Dec 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-04? Dec 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-04? Dec 03 $7 $0 -2%
Bills vs. Rams Dec 02 $4 $0 -9%
Saints vs. Giants Dec 02 $8 −$1 -9%
Bears vs. 49ers Dec 02 $22 $0 +0%
Browns vs. Steelers Dec 02 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $34 1h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? BUY No 100¢ $31 24d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $40 end of April? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 59d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $30 88d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 100¢ $5 142d
Will BNB dip to $500 in January? BUY No 100¢ $30 143d
Will Solana reach $230 in November? BUY No 100¢ $2 202d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $140 end of November? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 203d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,040 223d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $2,042 223d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,166 223d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2,168 223d
Will Opensea launch a token by October 31? BUY No 100¢ $28 244d
Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? BUY No 55¢ $10 277d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in August? BUY No 100¢ $3 296d
Will Bitcoin close above $95K on July 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 328d
Will Solana reach $220 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1 359d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 389d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $10 before June? BUY No 100¢ $1 389d
Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $1 421d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 421d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $1800 on Apr 18? BUY No 99¢ $1 427d
Solana all time high by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $3 451d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $93000 on Mar 14? BUY No 99¢ $2 463d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $93000 on Mar 14? BUY No 99¢ $2 463d
Will Trump post 180-199 times on Truth Feb 21-28? BUY No 100¢ $1 476d
Will Trump post 180-199 times on Truth Feb 21-28? BUY No 100¢ $1 477d
Solana above $200 on February 21? BUY No 99¢ $1 484d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $817 484d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $818 484d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.70 · official $33.70 (match) · 182 history records