Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:38:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42e5…9de1 crypto 669 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$116 (-5%) realized −$116 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%259W / 410L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days−$86
14 days−$65
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -19.0% -26.7% 41% 41% -45.7%
≤30d 262 +3.3% -6.5% 30% 29% -15.9%
≤90d 669 -0.9% -10.4% 39% 39% -14.0%
all 669 -0.9% -10.4% 39% 39% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 39% -14.0%
10% -19.0% 38% -22.2%
15% -26.8% 37% -29.7%
20% -34.0% 32% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses259 / 410
Open positions0
Markets (closed)669 / 669
History coverage74d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 669 Trades
no open positions (377 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$7 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$9 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$8 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$10 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$6 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$6 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$6 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$6 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$6 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$6 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$6 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$6 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$6 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$6 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$6 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $22 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $6 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1359 history records