Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:50:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

42 0x42e1…7466 other 4 markets active 10h ago coverage 12d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$5 (-3%) realized −$12 · open +$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$49per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-24.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-16.0%	-24.0%	0%	0%	-21.1%
≤30d	2	-16.0%	-24.0%	0%	0%	-21.1%
≤90d	2	-16.0%	-24.0%	0%	0%	-21.1%
all	2	-16.0%	-24.0%	0%	0%	-21.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-24.0%	0%	-21.1%
10%	-31.3%	0%	-28.7%
15%	-37.9%	0%	-35.6%
20%	-44.0%	0%	-41.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -13% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -16% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$8 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage

Net worth$82

Realized−$12

Unrealized+$7

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage12d

Avg bet$49

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June?	Yes	2¢	3¢	$34	$42	+$8 (+24%)
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$41	$40	−$1 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 17	$25	−$5	-22%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 16	$97	−$10	-10%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June?	BUY Yes	2¢	$34	10h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$20	14h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$15	34h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$33	35h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$33	35h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$38	35h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$38	36h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$25	37h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$26	37h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June?	BUY Yes	2¢	$41	12d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.04 · official $82.04 (match) · 11 history records