Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:00:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
42 0x42db…b154 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-4%) realized −$19 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$292now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$17
sports 14% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -8.2% -16.9% 50% 50% -29.2%
≤30d 6 -8.2% -16.9% 50% 50% -29.2%
≤90d 6 -8.2% -16.9% 50% 50% -29.2%
all 6 -8.2% -16.9% 50% 50% -29.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 50% -29.2%
10% -24.9% 50% -36.0%
15% -32.1% 50% -42.2%
20% -38.8% 33% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$292
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage6d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $252 $255 +$4 (+1%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 30¢ 30¢ $37 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $50 −$12 -25%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $8 +$6 +78%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 +$7 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $38 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $38 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 46¢ $17 18h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 16¢ $8 33h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $15 36h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $8 38h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $12 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 41¢ $12 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $239 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $291.66 · official $291.66 (match) · 19 history records