Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:44:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42da…b21b other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-10%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$3
crypto 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-33.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -26.4% -33.4% 38% 25% -13.7%
≤30d 8 -26.4% -33.4% 38% 25% -13.7%
≤90d 8 -26.4% -33.4% 38% 25% -13.7%
all 8 -26.4% -33.4% 38% 25% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.4% 25% -13.7%
10% -39.8% 12% -22.0%
15% -45.6% 12% -29.5%
20% -51.0% 12% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage4d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $60 +$13 +21%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 $0 -10%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 20 $61 +$5 +8%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $17 −$16 -98%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $17 +$9 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 82¢ $60 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 2h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 24h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 24h
Paraguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $66 2d
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 91¢ $61 2d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $13 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $13 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $12 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.56 · official $13.56 (match) · 16 history records