Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:45:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x42d9…bc6d
other · 180 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,048 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,042 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$333
Realized−$1,042
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses59 / 105
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions16
Markets (closed)164 / 180
History coverage641d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 16 History 164 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$224
14 days+$344
30 days+$155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Under 58¢ 57¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-4%)
Will USA finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 58¢ 59¢ $17 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will Australia finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $16 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Will Japan finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $14 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Will Sweden finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+21%)
Will Egypt finish second in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-11%)
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul Tommy Paul 64¢ 0¢ $140 $0 −$140 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 21¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jakub Mensik 12¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Casper Ruud vs. Mariano Navone: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 34¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Naomi Osaka 24¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $202 +$105 +52%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 07 $219 +$150 +69%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $21 −$20 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $14 −$14 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $149 +$154 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $142 −$140 -99%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Casper Ruud vs. Mariano Navone: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 22 $25 −$25 -98%
Geneva Open: Valentin Royer vs Francisco Comesana May 19 $44 +$36 +83%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 02 $100 −$12 -12%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $19 +$51 +262%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $40 +$80 +200%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $20 +$32 +158%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-10? Apr 14 $20 +$47 +237%
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Men's Quarterfinals - USA vs. Sweden Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Duke Blue Devils vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-13.5) Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
NBA Finals G6: Will Jalen Williams score 25+ points against the Pacer Apr 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-12.5) Apr 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-04? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04? Apr 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET Apr 14 $70 −$1 -1%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Florida Gators vs. Duke Blue Devils Apr 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? Apr 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-03-15? Apr 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Apr 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Apr 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Apr 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-03-21? Apr 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Spurs vs. Warriors Apr 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Jon Rahm win The 2025 Open Championship? Apr 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5 Apr 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) Apr 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 40% −$979
other 22% +$335
sports 17% −$71
weather 14% −$281
politics 2% +$3
world 2% −$130
culture 2% +$17
economics 1% +$79
finance 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 42¢ $2 43m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $29 1h
Will Egypt finish second in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 32¢ $8 1h
Will Ecuador finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 42¢ $19 1h
Will Türkiye finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 47¢ $14 1h
Will Türkiye finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 46¢ $14 1h
Will USA finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 36¢ $27 1h
Will Japan finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 29¢ $15 1h
Will Australia finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 45¢ $16 1h
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 57¢ $46 1h
Will Sweden finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 25¢ $13 1h
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 58¢ $18 1h
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 1h
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $39 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $27 1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 38h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 3d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 23¢ $10 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 21¢ $11 5d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL Yes 91¢ $308 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 19¢ $10 5d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Jakub Mensik 12¢ $21 7d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Jakub Mensik 58¢ $10 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Jakub Mensik 57¢ $6 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Jakub Mensik 49¢ $51 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Jakub Mensik 56¢ $57 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Jakub Mensik 64¢ $26 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-37.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -19.8% -27.5% 50% 50% +35.2%
≤30d 13 -45.6% -50.8% 31% 31% +6.0%
≤90d 76 -50.5% -55.2% 20% 20% -38.9%
all 164 -30.7% -37.3% 36% 32% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.3% 32% -18.8%
10% -43.3% 27% -26.5%
15% -48.7% 24% -33.6%
20% -53.8% 20% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $333.34 · official $333.34 (match) · 556 history records