Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:01:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42d9…0211 other 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (1852 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$83 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate20%8W / 33L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$942per market
Trades / day1852.2pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$295now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$27
politics 44% +$10
world 10% +$71
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
sports 0% $0
finance 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1852 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +3.3% -6.5% 20% 5% -9.2%
≤30d 41 +3.3% -6.5% 20% 5% -9.2%
≤90d 41 +3.3% -6.5% 20% 5% -9.2%
all 41 +3.3% -6.5% 20% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1852.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 5% -9.2%
10% -15.4% 5% -17.9%
15% ← realistic here -23.6% 2% -25.9%
20% -31.1% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
38.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$0 · ×99.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×26.49 per $1 lost it wins $26.49
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$295
Realized−$83
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses8 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)41 / 48
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$942
Trades / day1852.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $143 $142 −$1 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 98¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 15 $155 $0 -0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,570 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 15 $218 +$20 +9%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 15 $16,589 +$11 +0%
Will Federico Valverde be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 15 $40 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 15 $3,105 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,231 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $177 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $449 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 15 $62 $0 -0%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $244 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $83 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $47 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $492 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $248 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $252 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $76 +$20 +26%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,525 −$1 -0%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $139 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10,315 +$32 +0%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $651 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $177 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 14 $136 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $1,227 +$31 +2%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,182 $0 -0%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 $0 -0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 13 $367 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $20 $0 -0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $21 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $21 +$21 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $7 0m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $14 0m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $21 0m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $12 3m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 98¢ $21 4m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $21 4m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $20 14m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $26 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $18 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $8 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $21 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $21 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $21 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $14 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $7 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $21 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $9 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $11 26m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $21 26m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $6 26m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $3 26m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $12 26m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $21 26m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $21 26m
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) SELL No 100¢ $5 29m
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) BUY No 100¢ $20 29m
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) SELL No 100¢ $11 29m
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) SELL No 100¢ $4 29m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 98¢ $67 32m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $67 37m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295.41 · official $295.41 (match) · 3500 history records