Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:24:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
42 0x42d6…01cc sports 1412 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 99d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,636 (-2%) realized −$7,666 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate65%917W / 493L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day27.7pace
Fees−$1,358est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$222
7 days−$174
14 days+$339
30 days−$1,364
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$9,816
other 21% +$5,334
crypto 2% −$846
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 -9.5% -18.1% 69% 62% -10.7%
≤30d 402 -0.6% -10.0% 67% 61% -11.6%
≤90d 1114 -5.6% -14.6% 67% 54% -10.4%
all 1410 -5.1% -14.2% 65% 54% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 54% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 38% -19.3%
15% -29.9% 27% -27.1%
20% -36.8% 17% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$116 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$7,666
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses917 / 493
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$1,358
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1410 / 1412
History coverage99d ⚠
Avg bet$282
Trades / day27.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1410 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Karolina Muchova 76¢ 90¢ $75 $88 +$13 (+18%)
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jakub Mensik 41¢ 86¢ $15 $31 +$16 (+109%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $40 +$15 +36%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $251 +$30 +12%
Brescia: Raluca Serban vs Mayar Sherif Jun 15 $751 +$46 +6%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $76 −$76 -100%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $251 +$23 +9%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $76 +$28 +38%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $76 +$22 +29%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $76 +$31 +40%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $76 +$29 +38%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $51 +$25 +50%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $250 +$15 +6%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $251 +$18 +7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,002 +$78 +8%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $75 +$13 +17%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $76 +$58 +76%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $76 −$76 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $151 +$46 +31%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hannah Klugman Jun 14 $251 +$20 +8%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $30 +$17 +57%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Jun 14 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $251 +$43 +17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $251 +$46 +18%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $50 +$17 +33%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $50 +$14 +27%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $151 +$44 +29%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Mikhail Kukushkin Jun 13 $251 +$30 +12%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $51 +$30 +60%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $251 +$57 +23%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Liam Broady Jun 13 $76 +$26 +34%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $198 +$99 +50%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Mimi Xu vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 13 $501 +$25 +5%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $98 +$17 +17%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $605 +$275 +45%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $754 −$754 -100%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $201 −$201 -100%
Modena: Nuria Brancaccio vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 12 $30 +$13 +44%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $76 +$31 +42%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $50 +$11 +21%
Ilkley: Harmony Tan vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $10 +$10 +101%
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Swan Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $252 −$252 -100%
Ilkley: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Dalma Galfi Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $75 +$21 +27%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $50 +$17 +34%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 12 $75 +$12 +16%
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 12 $251 +$46 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics SELL Brandon Nakashima 100¢ $55 30m
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 76¢ $76 46m
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Brandon Nakashima 73¢ $40 1h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 41¢ $15 1h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 84¢ $75 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $251 17h
Brescia: Raluca Serban vs Mayar Sherif SELL Mayar Sherif 100¢ $797 19h
Brescia: Raluca Serban vs Mayar Sherif BUY Mayar Sherif 92¢ $251 20h
Brescia: Raluca Serban vs Mayar Sherif BUY Mayar Sherif 95¢ $501 20h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 100¢ $274 21h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda SELL Tommy Paul 100¢ $104 21h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito SELL Petra Marcinko 100¢ $97 21h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 66¢ $76 22h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 72¢ $76 22h
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken SELL Botic van de Zandschulp 100¢ $106 23h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 91¢ $251 23h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu SELL Katerina Siniakova 100¢ $104 24h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova SELL Marie Bouzkova 100¢ $76 24h
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen SELL Tatjana Maria 100¢ $266 25h
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen BUY Tatjana Maria 94¢ $250 25h
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien SELL Learner Tien 100¢ $269 25h
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 71¢ $76 25h
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 93¢ $251 25h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Marie Bouzkova 66¢ $51 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,080 41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $501 42h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $501 43h
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Jesper de Jong 85¢ $75 44h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hannah Klugman BUY Zeynep Sonmez 93¢ $251 47h
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 47¢ $25 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.60 · official $119.60 (match) · 3500 history records