Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:14:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
42 0x42d0…cbc5 other 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$178 (+1%) realized +$113 · open +$65
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate64%45W / 25L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,699now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$160
7 days−$160
14 days+$101
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$129
crypto 16% −$2
other 14% +$34
politics 2% −$19
tech 2% +$4
sports 1% −$14
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -37.7% -43.7% 0% 0% -36.9%
≤30d 11 -12.6% -20.9% 45% 27% -8.5%
≤90d 41 -3.8% -13.0% 61% 22% -9.0%
all 70 -2.4% -11.7% 64% 23% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 23% -9.1%
10% -20.2% 6% -17.8%
15% -27.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$32 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$1,699
Realized+$113
Unrealized+$65
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses45 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)70 / 74
History coverage222d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $770 $766 −$4 (-1%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 83¢ 91¢ $699 $762 +$63 (+9%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? Yes 78¢ 81¢ $148 $154 +$6 (+4%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 90¢ 94¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? Jun 28 $199 −$50 -25%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Jun 28 $243 −$44 -18%
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Jun 28 $22 −$2 -8%
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? Jun 27 $64 −$64 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $1,500 +$261 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1,712 −$393 -23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $300 −$104 -35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $1,935 +$78 +4%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 02 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by May 31? Jun 02 $23 +$3 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1,489 +$396 +27%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $1,557 −$61 -4%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 24 $38 −$2 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $22 +$6 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 24 $1,440 +$41 +3%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? May 22 $142 −$9 -6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $1,320 +$15 +1%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026? May 21 $20 +$3 +13%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? May 21 $101 +$8 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? May 19 $1,300 −$2 -0%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 17 $25 +$3 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 17 $1,420 −$1 -0%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? May 17 $15 −$6 -38%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May? May 13 $32 +$3 +8%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 12 $14 +$1 +6%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? May 12 $16 +$1 +8%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 29 $26 $0 +2%
Will MegaETH launch a token by December 31, 2026? Apr 29 $48 +$2 +4%
Will MegaETH launch a token by September 30, 2026? Apr 29 $22 +$2 +8%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 29 $13 −$5 -41%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election Apr 29 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Clayton Fuller win the GA-14 special election? Apr 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $28 −$2 -9%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Apr 15 $23 +$6 +28%
Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 07 $17 +$1 +5%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $22 $0 -2%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 07 $16 $0 +1%
Will Social Democrats win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in th Apr 02 $15 +$1 +6%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 02 $17 +$1 +9%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Apr 02 $18 +$4 +22%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Mar 24 $13 −$2 -13%
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representa Mar 24 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1? Mar 05 $13 +$2 +14%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $12 +$4 +30%
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people? Mar 01 $15 +$1 +5%
Will there be 10–12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Mar 01 $21 $0 +1%
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $24 +$1 +4%
Espresso FDV above $700M one day after launch? Feb 23 $11 $0 +3%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 11 $22 −$5 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? BUY Yes 78¢ $149 1h
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL No 50¢ $149 1h
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $199 1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? SELL Yes 53¢ $199 10h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 73¢ $23 10h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $220 11h
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? SELL Yes 86¢ $20 11h
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $222 11h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? BUY No 45¢ $64 24h
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $1,008 2d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $704 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,500 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $1,319 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $196 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $700 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $300 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1,012 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2,013 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1,935 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $1,489 34d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? SELL No 90¢ $1,496 34d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY No 94¢ $1,557 35d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 87¢ $36 35d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $28 35d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 92¢ $15 37d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,440 37d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $132 37d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $1,335 37d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $38 38d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $142 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,698.52 · official $1,698.54 (match) · 270 history records