Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
42 0x42cf…7c3f crypto 151 markets active 4d ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,130 (-4%) realized −$1,148 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%55W / 54L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$335now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,299
14 days−$1,942
30 days−$1,442
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$1,436
other 1% −$133
world 1% +$26
tech 0% −$3
weather 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -36.6% -42.7% 25% 25% -56.7%
≤30d 98 +0.8% -8.8% 52% 42% -14.2%
≤90d 109 -4.9% -13.9% 50% 39% -14.6%
all 109 -4.9% -13.9% 50% 39% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 39% -14.6%
10% -22.2% 30% -22.8%
15% -29.7% 24% -30.3%
20% -36.6% 17% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$93 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$335
Realized−$1,148
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses55 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions42
Markets (closed)109 / 151
History coverage37d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 71¢ 95¢ $100 $134 +$34 (+34%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 66¢ 68¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-24%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 17¢ 36¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+116%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $4 $7 +$4 (+88%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 39¢ 14¢ $20 $7 −$13 (-63%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+64%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+57%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-17%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-18%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $62 +$48 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $311 −$311 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $310 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $411 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $204 +$78 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $477 −$170 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $63 +$165 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $191 −$137 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $318 −$15 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $102 −$11 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 09 $201 +$51 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 09 $270 −$13 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 09 $294 −$32 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 09 $367 −$14 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $290 −$90 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 09 $265 +$38 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 09 $380 +$18 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 09 $236 +$64 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 09 $273 +$47 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 09 $154 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 09 $251 +$20 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $167 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 09 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $329 −$329 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 09 $487 −$147 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 09 $510 +$85 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $959 −$959 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 09 $1,169 +$98 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 09 $364 −$22 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $654 −$21 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 08 $1,215 +$24 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 08 $1,466 −$230 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $1,273 +$114 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 08 $1,168 −$63 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 08 $868 +$244 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 08 $407 +$133 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 08 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 08 $408 +$155 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 08 $1,371 −$633 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 06 $1,518 +$87 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 06 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 06 $155 +$131 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 05 $1,418 +$104 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 05 $1,225 +$131 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $110 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $62 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $310 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $411 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $204 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $311 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $303 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $300 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $155 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $83 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $42 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $228 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $63 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $31 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $30 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $19 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $335.08 · official $335.10 (match) · 520 history records