Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:38:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

42 0x42c8…197a other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$34 (+18%) realized +$47 · open −$13

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip

Net edge-2%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$47per market

Trades / day1.7pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-2.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+8.2%	-2.1%	67%	67%	+9.1%
≤30d	3	+8.2%	-2.1%	67%	67%	+9.1%
≤90d	3	+8.2%	-2.1%	67%	67%	+9.1%
all	3	+8.2%	-2.1%	67%	67%	+9.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-2.1%	67%	+9.1%
10%	-11.5%	67%	-1.3%
15%	-20.0%	67%	-10.9%
20%	-27.9%	67%	-19.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +21% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +8% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$36 vs −$40 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$17

Realized+$47

Unrealized−$13

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage3d

Avg bet$47

Trades / day1.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	67¢	38¢	$30	$17	−$13 (-43%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$61	+$35	+57%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 19	$56	+$38	+67%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$41	−$40	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$30	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	96¢	$95	24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$61	26h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	54¢	$41	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$56	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.24 · official $17.24 (match) · 6 history records