Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42c5…034d sports 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,381 (-19%) realized −$7,184 · open −$197
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate67%34W / 17L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$724per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$399est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$866now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18,098
7 days−$18,617
14 days−$7,036
30 days−$7,037
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$9,563
world 42% −$16,596
politics 5% −$198
tech 1% +$3
crypto 1% −$38
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -73.0% -75.6% 20% 10% -93.7%
≤30d 28 +10.8% +0.2% 68% 61% -26.7%
≤90d 36 +3.5% -6.3% 67% 47% -26.7%
all 51 +4.3% -5.7% 67% 35% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 35% -26.7%
10% -14.7% 31% -33.7%
15% -22.9% 25% -40.1%
20% -30.5% 24% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$346 vs −$1,108 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$866
Realized−$7,184
Unrealized−$197
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses34 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$399
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 54
History coverage110d
Avg bet$724
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $819 $855 +$36 (+4%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 21¢ 1¢ $243 $9 −$234 (-96%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals San Diego Padres 50¢ 56¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Niccolo Baroni vs Branko Djuric Jun 17 $303 +$171 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Heilbronn: Marco Trungelliti vs Diego Dedura-Palomero Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Ilkley: Billy Harris vs Clement Chidekh Jun 17 $862 +$6 +1%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 17 $473 −$473 -100%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 17 $492 −$429 -87%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 17 $639 −$639 -100%
Makarska: Noma Noha Akugue vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Jun 17 $112 −$112 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 17 $16,596 −$16,596 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 11 $518 −$518 -100%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Ilia Simakin Jun 09 $439 +$244 +56%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $559 +$430 +77%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $802 +$875 +109%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 08 $434 +$107 +25%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $486 +$3 +1%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 08 $76 +$18 +23%
Ilkley: Kyrian Jacquet vs Toby Samuel Jun 08 $394 +$216 +55%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $64 +$59 +93%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $683 +$349 +51%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 08 $247 +$94 +38%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $644 +$136 +21%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $427 +$328 +77%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Mika Stojsavljevic Jun 05 $586 +$383 +65%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $773 +$116 +15%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $245 +$60 +25%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $380 +$902 +237%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $9,798 +$7,262 +74%
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? May 18 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Apr 05 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Apr 04 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Apr 04 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 04 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Apr 04 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 04 $5 −$3 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 02 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6PM ET Mar 01 $16 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Feb 28 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Feb 28 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Feb 28 $8 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - February 27, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Feb 28 $12 −$2 -18%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Feb 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 28? Feb 28 $60 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - February 27, 9PM ET Feb 28 $10 $0 +2%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Feb 28 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 28 $9 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 9PM ET Feb 28 $3 $0 +6%
Will Hillary say "Plane" during her Epstein testimony? Feb 28 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Feb 28 $1 +$3 +271%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 50¢ $2 12m
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Niccolo Baroni vs Branko Djuric SELL Branko Djuric 99¢ $113 1h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Niccolo Baroni vs Branko Djuric SELL Branko Djuric 72¢ $103 1h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Niccolo Baroni vs Branko Djuric SELL Branko Djuric 72¢ $19 1h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Niccolo Baroni vs Branko Djuric BUY Branko Djuric 58¢ $82 1h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Niccolo Baroni vs Branko Djuric SELL Branko Djuric 83¢ $24 1h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Niccolo Baroni vs Branko Djuric SELL Branko Djuric 70¢ $148 1h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Niccolo Baroni vs Branko Djuric SELL Branko Djuric 70¢ $11 1h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Niccolo Baroni vs Branko Djuric BUY Branko Djuric 55¢ $64 1h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Niccolo Baroni vs Branko Djuric BUY Branko Djuric 55¢ $16 1h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Niccolo Baroni vs Branko Djuric BUY Branko Djuric 55¢ $39 1h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Niccolo Baroni vs Branko Djuric BUY Branko Djuric 42¢ $101 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 51¢ $639 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $233 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $364 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $3 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $5 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $38 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $59 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $8 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $580 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $1,290 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $1,290 5d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 42¢ $518 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $987 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $821 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 7¢ $75 8d
Ilkley: Billy Harris vs Clement Chidekh SELL Clement Chidekh 50¢ $42 8d
Ilkley: Billy Harris vs Clement Chidekh BUY Clement Chidekh 44¢ $59 8d
Ilkley: Billy Harris vs Clement Chidekh BUY Clement Chidekh 44¢ $44 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $865.80 · official $866.38 (match) · 425 history records