Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:59:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42c4…8ce2 other 44 markets active 13d ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (290 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,598 (-2%) realized −$1,598 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate54%25W / 21L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$2,214per market
Trades / day289.6pace
Fees−$132est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$844
politics 31% +$561
other 13% −$468
sports 8% +$77
crypto 2% +$405
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (290 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 46 -5.9% -14.8% 54% 11% -8.4%
≤90d 46 -5.9% -14.8% 54% 11% -8.4%
all 46 -5.9% -14.8% 54% 11% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover289.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 11% -8.4%
10% -23.0% 9% -17.1%
15% ← realistic here -30.4% 4% -25.1%
20% -37.2% 4% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$1,731) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
40.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$103 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,598
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses25 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$132
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 44
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$2,214
Trades / day289.6
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 29 $368 −$493 -134%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 29 $218 −$313 -144%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $10,426 +$397 +4%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $468 $0 -0%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 14 $6,182 +$6 +0%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 14 $1,354 +$219 +16%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $473 −$43 -9%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,451 −$41 -3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $613 +$177 +29%
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Jun 14 $328 −$3 -1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $563 −$11 -2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 14 $12,231 +$60 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $4,503 +$124 +3%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $10,003 +$311 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 14 $6,133 +$231 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 14 $10,469 +$79 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $8,119 +$190 +2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $837 +$7 +1%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 14 $1,731 −$20 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $671 −$27 -4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,193 −$5 -0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $276 +$10 +4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 13 $1,254 +$5 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $3,544 +$63 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $571 −$249 -44%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $243 +$4 +1%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 13 $1,592 +$3 +0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $2,143 +$87 +4%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $0 $0 -33%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $903 −$314 -35%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $2,715 −$13 -0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $222 +$3 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 11 $187 +$155 +83%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $399 +$2 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $741 −$3 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 08 $329 $0 +0%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $467 +$20 +4%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $945 −$1 -0%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $215 +$1 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $267 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1,488 −$415 -28%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 07 $179 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 07 $218 +$181 +83%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $662 +$229 +34%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 03 $96 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $1,030 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $167 13d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 13d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $43 14d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL No 48¢ $81 14d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $247 14d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 14d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $57 14d
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? SELL No 95¢ $272 14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $283 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $763 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $770 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $737 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 99¢ $188 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 99¢ $101 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 99¢ $288 14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 14d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL No 49¢ $162 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $17 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $16 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $16 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $16 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $16 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 14d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $16 14d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 14d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $16 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 99¢ $187 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 99¢ $100 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records