Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:16:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42c4…6a4c crypto 279 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$432 (-3%) realized −$432 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate74%207W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$109
7 days+$107
14 days−$19
30 days+$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$591
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +3.7% -6.2% 90% 71% -4.1%
≤30d 134 -2.4% -11.7% 84% 59% -7.8%
≤90d 279 -1.5% -10.8% 74% 56% -13.4%
all 279 -1.5% -10.8% 74% 56% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 56% -13.4%
10% -19.4% 29% -21.6%
15% -27.2% 18% -29.2%
20% -34.3% 13% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$52 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$432
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses207 / 72
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)279 / 279
History coverage42d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 279 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $72 +$11 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $72 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $72 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $148 +$32 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $149 +$31 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $105 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $105 +$22 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $105 +$20 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $72 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $105 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $105 +$16 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $72 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $149 +$35 +24%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $105 +$16 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $105 +$16 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $105 +$18 +17%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $72 +$14 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $72 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $71 +$11 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $72 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $72 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $148 −$148 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $72 +$11 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $72 +$12 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $72 +$12 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $147 +$41 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $61 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $95 +$16 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $62 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $62 +$9 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $113 +$29 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $62 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $140 +$32 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $95 +$16 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$4 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $23 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $18 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $13 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $22 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $51 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $22 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1029 history records