Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:03:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
42 0x42c0…c83c other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$533 (+2%) realized +$613 · open −$80
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate84%16W / 3L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,183per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$3,339now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$823
sports 26% −$186
crypto 4% +$309
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +2.3% -7.5% 84% 53% -5.5%
≤30d 19 +2.3% -7.5% 84% 53% -5.5%
≤90d 19 +2.3% -7.5% 84% 53% -5.5%
all 19 +2.3% -7.5% 84% 53% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 53% -5.5%
10% -16.3% 21% -14.5%
15% -24.4% 5% -22.8%
20% -31.8% 0% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,204) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$190 vs −$671 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$3,339
Realized+$613
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses16 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage5d
Avg bet$1,183
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $978 $968 −$10 (-1%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 88¢ $950 $880 −$70 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $501 +$37 +7%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $1,003 +$91 +9%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $502 −$16 -3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,006 +$218 +22%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $503 +$122 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2,002 +$68 +3%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $1,005 +$186 +18%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1,007 +$309 +31%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $1,004 +$133 +13%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $1,006 +$263 +26%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3,314 +$548 +16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,007 −$997 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2,002 +$54 +3%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,614 +$671 +42%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,204 +$144 +12%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1,202 +$28 +2%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1,004 +$159 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes $3 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $502 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 93¢ $501 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 90¢ $501 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,000 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 93¢ $501 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 2h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $276 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 92¢ $459 4h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $503 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 79¢ $1,006 4h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 84¢ $1,005 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,001 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,001 9h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $1,004 26h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,013 26h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $1,006 29h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,304 32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes $10 32h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $2,010 32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 78¢ $1,007 33h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,614 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 97¢ $2,002 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,204 2d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,230 2d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,202 2d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,007 2d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 95¢ $951 4d
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $989 4d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,004 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,338.90 · official $3,338.91 (match) · 45 history records