Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:15:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42bf…3fc1 crypto 335 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$182 (-2%) realized −$166 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%169W / 164L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days+$9
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$46
crypto 36% −$54
other 14% −$142
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -12.9% -21.2% 30% 20% -7.4%
≤30d 18 +47.2% +33.2% 39% 33% -9.0%
≤90d 19 +40.0% +26.6% 37% 32% -31.5%
all 333 -1.0% -10.4% 51% 50% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 50% -12.0%
10% -19.0% 49% -20.5%
15% -26.8% 48% -28.1%
20% -34.0% 46% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$20 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized−$166
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses169 / 164
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)333 / 335
History coverage109d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 333 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $101 +$10 +10%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $26 −$1 -3%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 +$72 +348%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$5 -5%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 +$11 +21%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$37 +361%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$40 +777%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $26 +$44 +170%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$73 +72%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 01 $271 −$245 -90%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Mar 29 $52 −$52 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playof Mar 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 29 $36 +$35 +97%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 29 $13 +$8 +64%
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qua Mar 29 $271 −$132 -49%
Jazz vs. Suns: O/U 231.5 Mar 29 $45 +$43 +97%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoff Mar 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner Mar 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner Mar 28 $14 +$9 +64%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Mar 28 $29 −$29 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Mar 28 $78 +$91 +117%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs Mar 28 $38 −$38 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner Mar 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner Mar 28 $43 −$43 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playof Mar 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-8.5) Mar 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-9.5) Mar 28 $34 −$34 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 27 $6 +$3 +54%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner Mar 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner Mar 27 $24 +$25 +100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs Mar 27 $27 +$22 +81%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 27 $38 +$41 +108%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Mar 26 $17 +$13 +76%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs Mar 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Mar 26 $19 +$12 +63%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Mar 25 $11 +$4 +40%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs PARIVISION (BO1) - ESL One Birmingham Group A Mar 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Mar 25 $44 +$20 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $103 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 43h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $101 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 57¢ $25 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $26 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 4d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 4d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 82¢ $96 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 5d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $101 5d
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 42¢ $18 6d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $26 6d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $26 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $102 7d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $26 7d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 8d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $104 8d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $26 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $102 9d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner BUY Tundra Esports 58¢ $1 91d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner BUY Tundra Esports 59¢ $3 91d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner BUY Tundra Esports 59¢ $38 91d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner BUY Tundra Esports 60¢ $1 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.43 · official $184.43 (match) · 1257 history records