Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:32:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42bc…fa5f politics 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$7 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%12W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$6
sports 20% +$2
other 12% −$3
culture 6% −$1
crypto 4% $0
world 4% $0
economics 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 60% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 60% 0% -9.6%
all 60 -4.2% -13.3% 20% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses12 / 48
Open positions2
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage268d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $92 $92 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $15 $14 −$2 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $109 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $106 $0 -0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 09 $103 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $104 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 23 $103 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $103 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 27 $103 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Feb 13 $104 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $216 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $3 −$2 -85%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $217 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 27 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 26 $106 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 26 $3 $0 -11%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 25 $213 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 24 $107 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 22 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 20 $213 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Jan 19 $108 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 17 $107 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $215 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 13? Jan 13 $110 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 12 $111 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 10 $109 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 09 $108 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 08 $1 $0 -14%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 07 $111 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 05 $110 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 03 $112 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 02 $107 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 31 $217 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 29 $111 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 27 $109 $0 -0%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Dec 26 $110 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 24 $109 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 22 $325 $0 -0%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Dec 20 $105 +$3 +3%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $211 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 13 $288 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 2? Dec 03 $105 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 01 $107 $0 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 26 $107 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 22 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 21 $1 $0 -50%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 20 $220 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 17 $111 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 14 $112 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 11 $221 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 07 $3 $0 -12%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Nov 04 $109 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $92 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $16 39h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $106 4d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $106 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $104 15d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 18d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $107 18d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $107 20d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $103 98d
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $103 105d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $103 110d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $103 116d
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $104 124d
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $104 136d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $103 137d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $103 139d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 0¢ $0 140d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $104 140d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $104 141d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 141d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 1¢ $3 141d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 141d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $106 141d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $106 142d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 142d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.20 · official $105.20 (match) · 252 history records