Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:02:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42b9…8682 other 85 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$215 (-12%) realized −$219 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%18W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day26.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$192
sports 28% −$223
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +18.8% +7.5% 32% 32% -12.0%
≤30d 57 +18.8% +7.5% 32% 32% -12.0%
≤90d 57 +18.8% +7.5% 32% 32% -12.0%
all 57 +18.8% +7.5% 32% 32% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.5% 32% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -2.8% 32% -20.4%
15% -12.2% 32% -28.1%
20% -20.8% 30% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$23 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$219
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses18 / 39
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions11
Markets (closed)57 / 85
History coverage4d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day26.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 1.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $26 $39 +$13 (+50%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-20%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-24%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-17%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-63%)
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $10 +$31 +307%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $101 +$49 +48%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $21 −$21 -98%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $20 +$54 +262%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $10 +$15 +146%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $18 +$102 +550%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -97%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $44 −$43 -97%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 25 $21 −$20 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 25 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $26 +$71 +279%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 24 $63 −$62 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $49 −$48 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $17 −$17 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $17 +$65 +374%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $26 +$58 +226%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $16 −$16 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $13 −$13 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
France to score first vs. Iraq? AND Argentina to score first vs. Austr Jun 23 $20 +$39 +190%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $20 +$42 +203%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $311 −$305 -98%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$42 +413%
Argentina leading at halftime? AND France to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 23 $25 +$47 +183%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$17 +165%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 23 $10 +$21 +206%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $17 +$89 +509%
France leading at halftime? AND Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 23 $26 +$76 +295%
Norway vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $10 −$1 -6%
Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Désiré Doué: 2+ goals Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 11m
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 22¢ $10 3h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3h
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $1 6h
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 39¢ $20 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 30¢ $10 9h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 1¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 100¢ $150 23h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 7¢ $11 24h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 67¢ $101 24h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 23¢ $10 25h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 12¢ $5 25h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 13¢ $5 25h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $26 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 23¢ $10 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 13¢ $18 28h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 40¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 27¢ $20 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 9¢ $20 29h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 32h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 32h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 32h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.83 · official $122.55 · 129 history records