Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:58:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42b8…1305 other 96 markets active 2d ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,191 (+3%) realized +$3,191 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate52%50W / 46L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,220per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$741
7 days+$876
14 days+$1,729
30 days+$1,835
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$2,568
economics 13% −$257
world 7% +$372
crypto 6% +$137
politics 2% +$31
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -7.4% -16.2% 50% 38% +3.3%
≤30d 20 +3.0% -6.8% 60% 40% -2.3%
≤90d 32 -4.1% -13.3% 59% 34% -2.1%
all 96 -1.1% -10.5% 52% 26% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 26% -7.3%
10% -19.1% 18% -16.2%
15% -26.9% 14% -24.3%
20% -34.1% 10% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,357) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$184 vs −$141 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,191
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses50 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 96
History coverage232d
Avg bet$1,220
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2,184 +$734 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1,329 +$38 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $105 −$31 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $952 +$376 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1,039 −$187 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $303 +$54 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $155 −$9 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $4,350 +$414 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $103 +$13 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $2,183 +$904 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1,180 −$494 -42%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $207 +$15 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $204 +$147 +72%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $104 +$15 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $4,007 +$131 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $523 +$348 +67%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $1,508 −$12 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $2,514 −$512 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $26 −$12 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 27 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 27 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 27 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $6 +$6 +100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 28 $3,527 +$359 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Mar 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026 Mar 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading? Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $76 +$3 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 17 $40 +$23 +56%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 15 $35 −$13 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 13 $50 +$36 +72%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 23 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 23 $26 $0 -1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 23 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 18 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 17 $64 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? Feb 07 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 07 $50 +$15 +30%
Will Lighter dip to $1.50 in January? Jan 20 $28 +$26 +93%
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? Jan 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October Jan 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on October Jan 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Jan 19 $2,097 −$7 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 5? Jan 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $39 36h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $86 36h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $47 36h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $70 36h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $49 36h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $273 36h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $60 37h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $20 37h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $3 37h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $8 37h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $162 37h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $52 40h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $120 42h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $236 43h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $398 43h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $315 43h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $75 43h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $25 43h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $10 43h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $25 43h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $128 43h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $4 43h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $100 43h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $10 43h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 43h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 43h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $29 43h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $50 43h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $14 43h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $44 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 808 history records