Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:11:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x42b7…abff
weather · 881 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,012 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$140 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$442
Realized+$140
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses509 / 345
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions42
Markets (closed)854 / 881
History coverage26d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day116.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 42 History 854 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$147
7 days+$268
14 days+$181
30 days+$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 57¢ 60¢ $45 $47 +$2 (+4%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 63¢ 90¢ $31 $44 +$13 (+42%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+5%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 94¢ 99¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+5%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 42¢ 59¢ $21 $30 +$9 (+42%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 81¢ 97¢ $25 $29 +$5 (+19%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? No 94¢ 93¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-2%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 58¢ 55¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026? Yes 45¢ 50¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+12%)
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 92¢ 95¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Rotisserie Chicken Act becomes law by June 30? No 99¢ 86¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-13%)
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? Yes 51¢ 72¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+42%)
Haiti elections delayed again? Yes 63¢ 52¢ $7 $5 −$1 (-18%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc.? No 40¢ 21¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-47%)
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Anthropic have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 86¢ 93¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $175B by June 30? No 80¢ 84¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 57¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? No 68¢ 75¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 14 $18 −$13 -75%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $35 +$7 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -78%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $30 +$1 +5%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +327%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -43%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $14 −$2 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$3 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 14 $11 +$3 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 −$3 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $4 −$1 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +4%
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? Jun 14 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 −$2 -7%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $29 +$13 +44%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $90 +$24 +26%
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n Jun 13 $28 +$4 +15%
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $23 +$3 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $26 +$38 +147%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 13 $12 −$7 -58%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $28 +$24 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $70 +$7 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 13 $30 +$10 +32%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $28 +$3 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$9 +186%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $70 +$23 +32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $29 +$22 +76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $29 +$33 +114%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $6 −$3 -46%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 13 $27 −$11 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $17 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $91 +$11 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $141 +$25 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $37 −$6 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $48 −$11 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 65% +$282
world 10% +$19
other 8% −$47
sports 8% −$93
politics 4% +$21
finance 3% −$32
crypto 2% −$11
tech 1% −$2
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? SELL No 0¢ $0 10m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 56¢ $3 15m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 46¢ $4 22m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 35¢ $2 22m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 26¢ $1 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 26¢ $6 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 28¢ $1 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 32¢ $2 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 32¢ $2 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 18¢ $3 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 75¢ $3 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 75¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 75¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 75¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 75¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 74¢ $14 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 74¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 67¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 67¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 67¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 67¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 67¢ $2 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 67¢ $2 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 70¢ $1 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 70¢ $1 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 66¢ $6 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 258 +7.5% -2.8% 65% 34% -4.9%
≤30d 854 +1.4% -8.3% 60% 36% -8.7%
≤90d 854 +1.4% -8.3% 60% 36% -8.7%
all 854 +1.4% -8.3% 60% 36% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover116.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 36% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 22% -17.4%
15% -25.1% 15% -25.4%
20% -32.4% 11% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $442.04 · official $440.38 (match) · 3500 history records