Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:02:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
42 0x42b7…77dc sports 499 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d only
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,896 (-2%) realized −$5,744 · open −$152
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%219W / 277L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$496per market
Trades / day64.5pace
Fees−$4,008est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$632now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$1,574
14 days+$2,371
30 days+$4,747
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$8,027
other 1% −$208
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -8.3% -17.0% 45% 43% -4.9%
≤30d 309 -0.3% -9.8% 45% 45% -6.8%
≤90d 496 -4.9% -13.9% 44% 44% -12.5%
all 496 -4.9% -13.9% 44% 44% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 44% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 42% -20.9%
15% -29.7% 41% -28.5%
20% -36.6% 39% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$658) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$508 vs −$431 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$632
Realized−$5,744
Unrealized−$152
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses219 / 277
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$4,008
Open positions3
Markets (closed)496 / 499
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$496
Trades / day64.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 496 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Over 56¢ 64¢ $403 $465 +$61 (+15%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners Under 43¢ 16¢ $266 $102 −$164 (-62%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 3.5 Corners Under 61¢ 35¢ $115 $65 −$49 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $500 +$392 +78%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $169 +$446 +264%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $400 −$397 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $105 −$103 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $140 −$140 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $76 −$74 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $564 +$466 +83%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $181 −$179 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $193 −$192 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $303 +$718 +237%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $336 −$330 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $80 −$78 -97%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $254 −$253 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $428 −$420 -98%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $212 −$208 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $407 +$394 +97%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3? Jun 15 $3 +$5 +156%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? Jun 15 $585 −$585 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $885 −$885 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $853 −$853 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Jun 14 $866 +$521 +60%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? Jun 14 $76 +$35 +46%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) Jun 14 $97 −$97 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $174 −$174 -100%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 14 $143 −$143 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $153 −$153 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 14 $297 −$297 -100%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $263 −$263 -100%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $108 −$108 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $252 −$252 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $263 −$263 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 14 $373 −$373 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $319 −$319 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $207 −$207 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $241 −$241 -100%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $224 −$224 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $248 −$248 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $116 −$116 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $144 −$144 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $671 +$401 +60%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $455 −$455 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 14 $239 −$239 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $131 −$131 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $563 −$563 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $609 −$609 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $404 −$404 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $329 −$329 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $329 −$329 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 41¢ $102 59m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 41¢ $2 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 63¢ $5 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 43¢ $43 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 45¢ $1 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 45¢ $22 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 63¢ $2 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 63¢ $4 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 63¢ $68 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $409 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 44¢ $21 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 45¢ $18 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 45¢ $57 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 60¢ $8 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 60¢ $3 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 58¢ $26 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $15 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $12 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $6 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $5 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $17 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $11 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $29 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $10 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $17 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $169 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $28 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $3 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $9 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $15 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $632.46 · official $632.47 (match) · 3500 history records