Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:01:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x42b5…b5b6
other · 397 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$23,458 +19%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$20,611 · open +$2,229
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$33,541
Realized+$20,611
Unrealized+$2,229
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses62 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$1,467
Open positions271
Markets (closed)129 / 397
History coverage64d
Avg bet$319
Trades / day50.3
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit36%
Chart Positions 271 History 129 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$762
14 days−$762
30 days−$166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 11¢ 80¢ $379 $2,872 +$2,493 (+659%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 28¢ $1,260 $1,282 +$22 (+2%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 38¢ $1,297 $1,247 −$50 (-4%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 60¢ $1,045 $1,112 +$67 (+6%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 58¢ $1,083 $1,076 −$7 (-1%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 94¢ $802 $1,066 +$265 (+33%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $1,056 $1,064 +$8 (+1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 34¢ $977 $1,023 +$46 (+5%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 64¢ $1,000 $981 −$19 (-2%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $832 $852 +$20 (+2%)
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 21¢ 20¢ $923 $840 −$83 (-9%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 34¢ $754 $753 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $764 $741 −$22 (-3%)
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 31¢ $778 $731 −$47 (-6%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 45¢ 44¢ $697 $690 −$8 (-1%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 50¢ $643 $663 +$20 (+3%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 38¢ $475 $592 +$118 (+25%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 50¢ $527 $559 +$31 (+6%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 38¢ $509 $516 +$7 (+1%)
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 70¢ $492 $513 +$21 (+4%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $500 $507 +$8 (+2%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 64¢ $465 $482 +$16 (+4%)
Will Saudi Arabia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $546 $456 −$90 (-16%)
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $455 $439 −$15 (-3%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $390 $390 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Ducks vs. Oilers Jun 10 $366 −$366 -100%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 10 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 10 $134 −$134 -100%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 10 $231 −$231 -100%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Sabres vs. Canadiens May 19 $554 +$596 +108%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 28 $29 −$29 -100%
Sharks vs. Jets Apr 17 $221 −$221 -100%
Canucks vs. Oilers Apr 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Kings vs. Flames Apr 17 $255 −$255 -100%
Ducks vs. Predators Apr 17 $3,339 −$2,889 -86%
Blues vs. Utah Apr 17 $2 +$4 +170%
Kraken vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5 Apr 17 $90 +$40 +45%
Kraken vs. Avalanche Apr 17 $1,336 +$633 +47%
Kraken vs. Golden Knights Apr 17 $1,176 +$602 +51%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Pacific Division? Apr 16 $709 +$133 +19%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Pacific Division? Apr 16 $835 +$148 +18%
Kraken vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Apr 16 $1 +$1 +144%
Kraken vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Sharks vs. Blackhawks: O/U 4.5 Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Red Wings vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5 Apr 16 $106 +$83 +79%
Sharks vs. Blackhawks Apr 16 $171 +$209 +122%
Rangers vs. Lightning Apr 16 $3,716 +$987 +27%
Red Wings vs. Panthers Apr 16 $4,369 −$4,369 -100%
Stars vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 Apr 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Senators Apr 16 $3,986 −$1,349 -34%
Red Wings vs. Panthers: O/U 4.5 Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Stars vs. Sabres Apr 16 $18 $0 -2%
Jets vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Apr 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Penguins vs. Blues Apr 16 $4,731 −$2,612 -55%
Capitals vs. Blue Jackets Apr 16 $15 −$4 -31%
Kings vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5 Apr 16 $1,929 −$1,929 -100%
Avalanche vs. Flames Apr 16 $894 −$894 -100%
Ducks vs. Wild: O/U 4.5 Apr 16 $5 $0 +3%
Devils vs. Bruins: O/U 4.5 Apr 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Capitals vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 7.5 Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Devils vs. Bruins Apr 16 $4,500 −$4,500 -100%
Kings vs. Canucks Apr 16 $3,606 −$3,542 -98%
Ducks vs. Wild Apr 16 $272 −$126 -46%
Hurricanes vs. Islanders Apr 16 $2,008 −$2,008 -100%
Kings vs. Canucks: O/U 7.5 Apr 15 $6 +$2 +35%
Avalanche vs. Flames: O/U 4.5 Apr 15 $2 +$10 +484%
Jets vs. Utah: O/U 6.5 Apr 15 $17 +$22 +127%
Jets vs. Utah Apr 15 $1,410 +$905 +64%
Avalanche vs. Flames: O/U 6.5 Apr 15 $1,376 +$1,260 +92%
Ducks vs. Wild: O/U 5.5 Apr 15 $3 +$5 +186%
Jets vs. Utah: O/U 5.5 Apr 15 $14 +$12 +82%
Ducks vs. Wild: O/U 7.5 Apr 15 $51 +$25 +49%
Penguins vs. Blues: O/U 5.5 Apr 15 $102 +$68 +67%
Canadiens vs. Flyers Apr 15 $4,046 +$3,686 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 70% +$9,730
other 30% +$13,116
crypto 1% −$3
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 1m
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 7m
Will Netherlands win the World Cup? BUY Yes $1 7m
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 7m
Will Netherlands win the World Cup? BUY Yes $1 7m
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 7m
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 7m
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 8m
Will DR Congo be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $72 8m
Will Japan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 9m
Will Japan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 9m
Will Japan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 9m
Will Tunisia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 10m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $54 12m
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $28 14m
Will Paraguay reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 21m
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 22m
Will Sweden finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY No 72¢ $52 22m
Will DR Congo reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 22m
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 23m
Will Austria be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes $0 23m
Will Austria be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 23m
Will Austria be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 23m
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 23m
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 23m
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes $2 23m
Will Uruguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 23m
Will Uruguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 23m
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 23m
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes $2 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -65.4% -68.7% 17% 17% -20.9%
≤90d 129 +35.1% +22.2% 48% 47% +10.9%
all 129 +35.1% +22.2% 48% 47% +10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover50.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +22.2% 47% +10.9%
10% +10.5% 46% +0.3%
15% ← realistic here -0.1% 44% -9.4%
20% -9.9% 39% -18.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33,541.41 · official $33,542.27 (match) · 3500 history records