Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:43:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x42b3…c57e
world · 209 markets active 2h ago
2.0score
+$65 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$49 · open +$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$540
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses68 / 68
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions73
Markets (closed)136 / 209
History coverage36d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 73 History 136 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$11
14 days−$16
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $5 $22 +$17 (+341%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 88¢ 81¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-7%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 67¢ $6 $12 +$6 (+103%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 83¢ 98¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 80¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+45%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 70¢ 88¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+26%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 94¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+21%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Yes 58¢ 79¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+36%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 76¢ 91¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+20%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 74¢ 87¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+18%)
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? No 84¢ 88¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 48¢ 71¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+47%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 67¢ 76¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+14%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? No 93¢ 95¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 41¢ 60¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+45%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 82¢ 92¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+12%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? No 84¢ 84¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 24 or 25 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 27¢ 44¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+65%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 84¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 80¢ 85¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 43¢ 58¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+37%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 86¢ 82¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 59¢ 69¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -38%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $6 +$13 +213%
Will Benny Gantz join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? Jun 10 $9 +$2 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $9 +$2 +23%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $5 +$3 +54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +9%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $8 +$7 +82%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $16 +$9 +54%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $13 −$9 -69%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $8 −$7 -83%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 06 $6 +$5 +88%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 06 $20 +$4 +18%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 06 $6 −$1 -11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $6 −$2 -32%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $16 +$4 +27%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 05 $9 +$2 +24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? Jun 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? Jun 01 $7 −$5 -66%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? Jun 01 $8 −$6 -75%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 01 $16 −$5 -31%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +14%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $17 −$3 -19%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $18 −$8 -46%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 $0 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $9 +$2 +18%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? Jun 01 $9 +$2 +25%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +12%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $9 +$3 +37%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $20 −$3 -15%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +11%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +36%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +10%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $10 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 31 $15 +$1 +9%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 31 $10 +$1 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 31 $9 +$2 +25%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $10 +$1 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $10 +$2 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 31 $10 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 42% +$47
other 16% −$27
politics 14% +$17
crypto 10% +$6
sports 9% $0
finance 5% −$3
economics 4% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 47¢ $7 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $3 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $5 4h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 74¢ $9 23h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $9 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $11 23h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 23h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 33¢ $6 36h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 48¢ $7 36h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? SELL Yes 96¢ $13 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 44h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 55¢ $8 44h
Will Benny Gantz join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $11 44h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 92¢ $10 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $9 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $8 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $11 44h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 97¢ $8 44h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 44h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 46h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 80¢ $9 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 100¢ $15 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY M80 23¢ $6 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? BUY No 92¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 54¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +3.0% -6.8% 60% 50% -4.1%
≤30d 108 -5.3% -14.3% 53% 34% -5.8%
≤90d 136 -5.6% -14.6% 50% 32% -6.8%
all 136 -5.6% -14.6% 50% 32% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 32% -6.8%
10% -22.8% 21% -15.7%
15% -30.2% 13% -23.8%
20% -37.1% 12% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $540.23 · official $539.83 (match) · 540 history records