Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:52:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42b2…4655 politics 111 markets active 13h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,222 (-2%) realized −$2,222 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate25%28W / 82L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,071per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$709now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$13
14 days−$21
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$66
other 31% −$66
sports 14% −$2,101
culture 3% −$4
world 1% $0
crypto 1% +$2
economics 0% +$2
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 63 -12.9% -21.2% 10% 2% -12.2%
all 110 +2.5% -7.2% 25% 12% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 12% -11.3%
10% -16.1% 12% -19.8%
15% -24.2% 10% -27.5%
20% -31.6% 9% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,351) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$33 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$709
Realized−$2,222
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses28 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage143d
Avg bet$1,071
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $709 $709 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,674 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,654 −$4 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $376 +$2 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $2,644 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,756 −$3 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,059 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,016 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,832 −$4 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $970 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,078 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $1,094 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $1,188 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,064 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $645 +$1 +0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,803 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,028 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $2,653 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $2,721 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $2,634 −$3 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,336 −$2 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $1,337 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $3,740 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $753 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 01 $353 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 01 $371 +$1 +0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $717 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $3,058 −$3 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $4,329 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,544 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $2,560 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $6,102 −$6 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,405 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,338 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $2,759 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $3,911 −$4 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,056 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $1,561 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $2,450 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,062 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $1,562 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $2,362 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $172 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $166 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $178 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $1,318 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $203 13h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $204 14h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $457 17h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $457 19h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $709 43h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $944 4d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $945 4d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,024 4d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,026 4d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $735 5d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $736 5d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,058 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,059 6d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,015 6d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,016 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $974 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $976 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $969 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $970 7d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,077 11d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,078 11d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $987 11d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $989 11d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,093 12d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,094 12d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,186 15d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,188 15d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $865 15d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $866 15d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,062 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $709.06 · official $709.06 (match) · 354 history records