Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:34:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42b2…4861 crypto 346 markets active 4d ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$58 (-4%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%123W / 223L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% $0
other 26% −$35
weather 14% −$41
crypto 14% $0
politics 9% −$4
world 3% +$7
tech 2% −$9
finance 1% −$2
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -28.2% -35.0% 30% 30% -34.8%
≤30d 56 -33.0% -39.4% 30% 25% -28.8%
≤90d 346 -17.9% -25.7% 36% 32% -15.0%
all 346 -17.9% -25.7% 36% 32% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 32% -15.0%
10% -32.8% 23% -23.1%
15% -39.3% 16% -30.6%
20% -45.2% 12% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses123 / 223
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)346 / 346
History coverage79d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 346 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 10? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$2 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$2 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 9? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 7? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 8? Jun 07 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 +$2 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? Jun 06 $4 +$1 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 5? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 6? Jun 05 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 5? Jun 04 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 3? Jun 04 $8 −$3 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 4? Jun 04 $4 +$4 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 +$6 +146%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 2? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 2? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 30? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 30? May 30 $1 +$7 +554%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on May 28? May 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on May 28? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on May 28? May 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 28? May 27 $2 −$1 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on May 27? May 27 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on May 19? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 18? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 18? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 18? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 18? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 24? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 18? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 24? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? SELL Yes 58¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 10? SELL Yes 88¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 10? SELL Yes 55¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 10? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 8d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 10? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 8d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 9? SELL Yes 49¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 9? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 979 history records