Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:41:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
42 0x42af…df8e crypto 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 613d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$196 (+3%) realized +$195 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate98%42W / 1L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$353now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 31% +$25
other 26% +$18
politics 17% +$121
world 13% +$15
tech 7% +$7
economics 4% +$3
sports 2% +$5
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.3% -6.6% 100% 0% -6.6%
≤30d 3 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤90d 8 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -7.9%
all 43 +1.7% -8.0% 98% 5% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 5% -7.1%
10% -16.8% 5% -16.0%
15% -24.8% 5% -24.1%
20% -32.2% 5% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×15.31 per $1 lost it wins $15.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

613d coverage
Net worth$353
Realized+$195
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses42 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)43 / 46
History coverage613d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $122 $124 +$2 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $120 $120 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $220 +$7 +3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 10 $150 +$2 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 10 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 03 $150 +$3 +2%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 03 $190 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 1? Apr 18 $190 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 27? Apr 01 $150 +$3 +2%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $174 +$2 +1%
Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting? Mar 27 $160 +$2 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.90 February 2-8? Mar 05 $148 +$1 +1%
Zhang Youxia seen in public by February 28? Mar 05 $179 +$3 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 07 $310 +$7 +2%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 6-12? Jan 23 $150 +$4 +3%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting Jan 23 $166 +$3 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jan 11 $120 +$1 +0%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Jan 11 $190 +$4 +2%
US strikes Nigeria by November 30? Dec 15 $300 +$1 +0%
Which party wins Virginia House of Delegates? Nov 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will Winsome Earle-Sears win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 Nov 30 $260 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $124,000 on October 28? Nov 04 $300 +$2 +0%
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? Oct 27 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on October 13? Oct 27 $231 +$4 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Oct 13 $110 +$1 +1%
$YZY listed on Coinbase or Binance by September 30? Oct 13 $182 +$5 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 10 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $123K on August 12 at 5PM ET Sep 10 $160 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on July 18? Aug 12 $266 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106K on July 16? Jul 18 $268 +$1 +0%
Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Rotten Tomatoes score be Jul 15 $21 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jul 15 $110 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Jul 15 $130 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 16–23? Jun 09 $228 $0 +0%
Will another candidate win the Oakland mayoral race? May 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the most seats in Ontario in the nex May 23 $160 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Apr 15 $265 +$5 +2%
Ripple above $2.35 on February 14? Mar 12 $270 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 14 $233 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 22 $291 +$12 +4%
Trump wins every swing state? Dec 11 $14 −$14 -100%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House Dec 11 $10 $0 +1%
House control after 2024 election? Dec 11 $22 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $170 +$110 +65%
Will a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? Nov 07 $7 +$4 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $110 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $120 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $227 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $122 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $220 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $200 53d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $150 53d
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $190 68d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $150 85d
Ethereum Up or Down on April 1? BUY Up 98¢ $190 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 27? BUY Down 98¢ $150 90d
Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $160 112d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $174 112d
Will XRP dip to $0.90 February 2-8? BUY No 99¢ $148 138d
Zhang Youxia seen in public by February 28? BUY No 99¢ $179 138d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $310 153d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 6-12? BUY Yes 97¢ $150 165d
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting BUY Yes 98¢ $166 165d
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? BUY No 98¢ $190 192d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $120 192d
US strikes Nigeria by November 30? BUY No 100¢ $300 207d
Will Winsome Earle-Sears win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 BUY No 98¢ $260 233d
Which party wins Virginia House of Delegates? BUY Democratic 100¢ $25 233d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $124,000 on October 28? BUY No 99¢ $300 241d
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? BUY No 100¢ $58 255d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on October 13? BUY No 98¢ $231 255d
$YZY listed on Coinbase or Binance by September 30? BUY No 97¢ $182 288d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? BUY No 99¢ $110 288d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $123K on August 12 at 5PM ET BUY No 98¢ $160 317d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? BUY No 100¢ $111 317d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $352.92 · official $352.86 (match) · 91 history records