Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:12:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

42 0x42ad…6b11 sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$496 (-10%) realized −$434 · open −$62

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip

Net edge-29%after slip

Net WR35%break-even

Win rate35%6W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$290per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$49est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$622

7 days+$8

14 days+$8

30 days+$8

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +35%

net ROI/market (all)-29.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+1.5%	-8.2%	43%	43%	-9.2%
≤30d	7	+1.5%	-8.2%	43%	43%	-9.2%
≤90d	7	+1.5%	-8.2%	43%	43%	-9.2%
all	17	-21.9%	-29.4%	35%	35%	-19.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-29.4%	35%	-19.3%
10%	-36.1%	35%	-27.0%
15%	-42.3%	35%	-34.1%
20%	-48.0%	35%	-40.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 42% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -22% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -23% → late -21% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$387 vs −$259 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.81 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage

Net worth$212

Realized−$434

Unrealized−$62

Win rate (resolved)35%

Wins / losses6 / 11

Est. fees paid−$49

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 18

History coverage113d

Avg bet$290

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	Over	42¢	32¢	$274	$212	−$62 (-23%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5	Jun 26	$408	−$400	-98%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5	Jun 26	$306	−$300	-98%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5	Jun 26	$349	−$343	-98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	Jun 24	$328	+$421	+128%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Jun 24	$412	+$509	+124%
Spread: England (-2.5)	Jun 23	$357	−$350	-98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 22	$298	+$472	+158%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B	Mar 21	$299	−$299	-100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2	Mar 07	$300	−$300	-100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Heroic (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2	Mar 07	$170	−$170	-100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5)	Mar 07	$307	−$307	-100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner	Mar 06	$65	−$65	-100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2	Mar 06	$56	−$56	-100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner	Mar 06	$260	−$260	-100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2	Mar 06	$435	+$341	+78%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner	Mar 06	$197	+$359	+183%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1	Mar 05	$391	+$218	+56%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	42¢	$279	1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	37¢	$408	16h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	30¢	$306	17h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	42¢	$349	18h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$748	47h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	43¢	$328	2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	44¢	$412	2d
Spread: England (-2.5)	BUY England	12¢	$51	2d
Spread: England (-2.5)	BUY England	37¢	$306	3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	38¢	$298	4d
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B	BUY NIP	55¢	$299	97d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5)	BUY FURIA	55¢	$307	111d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Heroic (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2	BUY Heroic	20¢	$170	111d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2	BUY paiN	47¢	$300	112d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2	SELL G2	100¢	$777	112d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2	BUY G2	56¢	$435	112d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner	BUY Legacy	15¢	$65	112d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2	BUY Monte	18¢	$56	112d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner	SELL Astralis	100¢	$556	112d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner	BUY Astralis	33¢	$40	112d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner	BUY Astralis	36¢	$157	112d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner	BUY FUT Esports	0¢	$10	112d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner	BUY FUT Esports	7¢	$50	112d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner	BUY FUT Esports	51¢	$200	112d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1	SELL 3DMAX	100¢	$417	113d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1	BUY 3DMAX	46¢	$192	113d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1	SELL Liquid	54¢	$192	113d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1	BUY Liquid	56¢	$189	113d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1	BUY Liquid	56¢	$10	113d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.29 · official $212.29 (match) · 40 history records