Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
42 0x42ac…da58 crypto 555 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$44 (+1%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate91%507W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day40.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$27
14 days+$13
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 284 +1.5% -8.1% 92% 54% -7.9%
≤30d 555 +1.5% -8.2% 91% 55% -8.9%
≤90d 555 +1.5% -8.2% 91% 55% -8.9%
all 555 +1.5% -8.2% 91% 55% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 55% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 1% -17.6%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses507 / 48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)555 / 555
History coverage14d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day40.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 555 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $7 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $7 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $7 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $7 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $7 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $7 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $7 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $7 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $7 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $7 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $7 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $7 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $7 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $6 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $6 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $6 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $6 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1074 history records