Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:56:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x42ab…3e26
other · 118 markets active 4d ago
2.0score
+$24,614 +25%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$12,759 · open +$12,027
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$42,193
Realized+$12,759
Unrealized+$12,027
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses48 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$148
Open positions13
Markets (closed)105 / 118
History coverage60d
Avg bet$822
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit52%
Chart Positions 13 History 105 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2,384
30 days+$9,862
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 55¢ 84¢ $23,998 $36,835 +$12,837 (+53%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 49¢ 60¢ $3,427 $4,175 +$747 (+22%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 82¢ 89¢ $591 $636 +$45 (+8%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ 16¢ $405 $267 −$138 (-34%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 22¢ 1¢ $1,582 $99 −$1,483 (-94%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $60 $66 +$6 (+9%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 90¢ 98¢ $45 $49 +$4 (+9%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $54 $29 −$25 (-47%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 84¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 63¢ 6¢ $55 $6 −$50 (-90%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $4 −$34 (-89%)
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? Yes 72¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will Solana reach $90 in June? Yes 31¢ 3¢ $18 $2 −$16 (-89%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-71%)
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? No 2¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? No 68¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-05-03? No 77¢ 0¢ $136 $0 −$136 (-100%)
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $91 $0 −$91 (-100%)
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $379 $0 −$379 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $11,233 +$2,387 +21%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Jun 01 $719 +$3 +0%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $441 +$9 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 26 $381 −$379 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 25 $17 −$16 -96%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand May 25 $18 +$17 +95%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand May 25 $30 +$8 +27%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand May 25 $13 +$18 +142%
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Canadian Gr May 25 $2 +$2 +114%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $31 +$2 +5%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $47 +$106 +226%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $449 −$412 -92%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $728 +$6,261 +860%
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand P May 24 $157 −$61 -39%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand May 24 $108 −$86 -80%
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand May 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Pri May 24 $251 +$6 +2%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Pr May 24 $92 +$126 +136%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix May 24 $84 −$69 -82%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Pr May 24 $1,804 +$1,878 +104%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $48 −$25 -53%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $95 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Pr May 23 $41 −$14 -33%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand P May 23 $194 +$98 +51%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $93 −$91 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Pr May 23 $11 −$10 -97%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Gran May 22 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22? May 21 $1,054 −$176 -17%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $43 −$42 -96%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $2 −$1 -96%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president May 17 $15 +$3 +22%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $972 +$27 +3%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw? May 16 $4 +$12 +290%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $903 +$100 +11%
Will SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw? May 16 $7 +$3 +35%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $4 +$2 +64%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $32 +$86 +270%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $980 +$46 +5%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $920 +$80 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 12 $15,988 +$6,786 +42%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $1,423 −$20 -1%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $1,655 −$1,613 -97%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 10 $118 −$115 -97%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 59% +$22,294
sports 19% −$1,409
other 18% +$6,112
politics 3% −$1,656
tech 1% +$2
crypto 0% −$465
culture 0% −$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $11 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $11 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $430 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $830 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 62¢ $3 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 63¢ $608 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $3 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $650 8d
Will Solana reach $90 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 9d
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect BUY Yes 72¢ $3 9d
Will Solana reach $90 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $7 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $33 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $14 9d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY San Diego Padres 34¢ $15 9d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 9d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 9d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 9d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $42 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $21 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $150 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $60 9d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $13 10d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $101 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $226 10d
Will Solana reach $90 in June? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 10d
Will Solana reach $90 in June? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 43 +62.2% +46.7% 53% 37% +33.9%
≤90d 105 +25.8% +13.8% 46% 34% +8.3%
all 105 +25.8% +13.8% 46% 34% +8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.8% 34% +8.3%
10% ← realistic here +3.0% 30% -2.1%
15% -7.0% 26% -11.5%
20% -16.1% 22% -20.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42,193.23 · official $41,757.30 · 1548 history records