Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42ab…5872 world 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-2%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate37%7W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$2
other 29% −$1
politics 20% $0
sports 10% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 -2.6% -11.9% 0% 0% -11.4%
≤90d 5 -2.6% -11.9% 0% 0% -11.4%
all 19 -2.3% -11.6% 37% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 0% -10.8%
10% -20.1% 0% -19.3%
15% -27.8% 0% -27.1%
20% -34.9% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses7 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage446d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? No 96¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $18 −$1 -7%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $31 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $31 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $23 −$1 -4%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Dec 14 $2 $0 -22%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 26 $10 $0 -2%
Will Lee Jun-seok win more than 14% of the vote in the South Korea ele Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 09 $3 $0 +2%
Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Apr 07 $13 $0 -1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 06 $1 $0 -4%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon 250-499 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Pope Francis in his first 100 days? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Domantas Sabonis lead the NBA in Rebounds? Apr 01 $14 $0 +1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 31 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon go on Daily Show before April? Mar 30 $1 $0 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $30 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 70¢ $30 2h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $1 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $16 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $18 21d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $31 22d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $31 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $27 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $27 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $22 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $14 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $31 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 24d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi SELL No 95¢ $9 356d
Will Lee Jun-seok win more than 14% of the vote in the South Korea ele BUY No 96¢ $2 379d
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 393d
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? BUY No 99¢ $1 420d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? SELL Yes $0 434d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? SELL Yes $1 434d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? SELL Yes $2 434d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? SELL Yes $1 434d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi BUY No 97¢ $10 436d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? BUY Yes $1 436d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? BUY Yes $1 436d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? BUY Yes $2 436d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.41 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records