Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:38:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42aa…c271 world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate48%16W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$6
other 31% +$1
politics 21% $0
culture 7% $0
crypto 5% $0
finance 3% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 -1.4% -10.8% 38% 0% -11.8%
≤90d 8 -1.4% -10.8% 38% 0% -11.8%
all 33 -0.7% -10.2% 48% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -10.1%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses16 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage279d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $76 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $40 −$6 -14%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 01 $3 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $11 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $21 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 13 $18 $0 -2%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Oct 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $53 +$1 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $9 $0 +4%
Russian strike on Poland by September 30? Sep 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 30 $31 $0 -0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 28 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $24 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Sep 24 $2 $0 -21%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 23 $25 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Sep 19 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 18 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $32 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $32 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $13 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $13 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $22 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $10 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $25 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $7 23h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $35 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $35 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $18 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $3 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $14 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $3 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $41 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $41 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $13 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $8 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $7 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $14 26d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $1 253d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records