Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:23:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
42 0x42a8…76d3 crypto 893 markets active 4h ago coverage 59d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,043 (+9%) realized +$1,043 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%468W / 425L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day44.6pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$43
14 days+$81
30 days+$308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$768
other 3% −$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -8.7% -17.4% 53% 49% -3.3%
≤30d 337 +4.7% -5.3% 53% 47% -5.5%
≤90d 893 +7.6% -2.6% 52% 48% -8.0%
all 893 +7.6% -2.6% 52% 48% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.6% 48% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -12.0% 41% -16.8%
15% -20.5% 35% -24.9%
20% -28.3% 29% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$13 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,043
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses468 / 425
Open positions0
Markets (closed)893 / 893
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day44.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 893 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$9 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$12 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$6 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$7 +51%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$21 +264%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $22 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$7 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$8 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $35 +$6 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +42%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$2 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $7 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 28h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $7 32h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 32h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 32h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 32h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 32h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $7 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records