Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:25:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x42a6…1b64
politics · 79 markets active 193d ago
4.0score
+$1,097,930 +1680%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,097,930 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Net worth$4,036
Realized+$1,097,930
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses67 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 79
History coverage264d
Avg bet$827
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 0 History 82 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,301
7 days−$1,301
14 days−$1,301
30 days−$1,301
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Yes 17¢ 100¢ $650 $3,857 +$3,207 (+493%)
US Treasury transactions on blockchain in 2025? No 80¢ 100¢ $143 $179 +$36 (+25%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Yes 19¢ $1,439 $0 −$1,439 (-100%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Yes 18¢ $987 $0 −$987 (-100%)
US national Ethereum reserve in 2025? Yes 35¢ $638 $0 −$638 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US Treasury transactions on blockchain in 2025? Jun 12 $143 +$1 +1%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Jun 12 $987 −$1,164 -118%
US national Ethereum reserve in 2025? Jun 12 $638 −$138 -22%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Nov 14 $424 −$242 -57%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Nov 09 $141 +$398 +282%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Sep 28 $1,110 +$19,540 +1760%
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025? Sep 28 $1,615 +$378 +23%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 22 $909 +$3,215 +354%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Cit Aug 19 $74 +$1,523 +2048%
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files? Jul 16 $100 +$3,856 +3875%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 09 $2,465 +$14,709 +597%
US national XRP reserve in 2025? May 31 $557 +$264 +47%
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $4 +$2 +39%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $373 +$747 +200%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 17 $25 +$5,322 +21501%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 17 $184 +$343 +187%
Trump in Russia on Victory Day May 9? May 10 $104 +$450 +432%
Ukraine election called in 2025? May 09 $482 +$1,526 +317%
Did the FBI destroy Epstein files? May 09 $98 +$3 +3%
US government shutdown in 2025? May 07 $55 +$2,517 +4616%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 06 $425 +$24,661 +5804%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 03 $134 +$926 +692%
Zelensky resigns in 2025? May 02 $54 +$1,490 +2753%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico before May? May 02 $43 −$43 -100%
Will DOGE audit the IRS before May? May 02 $46 +$1,610 +3528%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 02 $1 +$4,901 +546972%
Will Trump sign mineral deal without Zelenskyy apology? May 02 $84 +$7,847 +9302%
Will Trump create External Revenue Service in first 100 days? Apr 30 $18 +$202 +1147%
Trump Admin confirms Aliens exist in first 100 days? Apr 30 $794 +$1,869 +235%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Apr 30 $2,076 +$229,447 +11050%
US recession in 2025? Apr 29 $157 +$771 +493%
Will the IRS "Broker DeFi Rule" be removed before August? Apr 11 $841 +$363 +43%
Will Trump visit Russia in first 100 days? Apr 09 $10 +$279 +2855%
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2025? Apr 04 $244 +$3,066 +1256%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Apr 04 $224 +$1,119 +499%
Mehmet Oz confirmed as Medicare and Medicaid Administrator? Apr 04 $8 +$11,817 +140625%
Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025? Apr 02 $4 +$5,787 +150320%
Will Microsoft buy TikTok? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -53%
Judge McConnell impeached before April? Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ben Carson be a member of the Trump administration? Apr 01 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Andrew Tate go to the UK before April? Apr 01 $12 +$26 +214%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before April? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 01 $19,863 −$10,961 -55%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before April? Apr 01 $282 +$11,031 +3907%
Was JFK assassination an inside job? Apr 01 $38 +$119,509 +317976%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Mar 27 $162 +$5,164 +3187%
Will the U.S. acquire Canadian territory in 2025? Mar 27 $1 +$30 +2048%
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? Mar 25 $204 +$2,038 +998%
Will Ukraine agree to pay back U.S. aid before July? Mar 25 $89 +$171,751 +193414%
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? Mar 25 $9,320 +$132,298 +1420%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 35% +$69,348
world 34% +$368,681
economics 21% +$228,015
other 6% +$196,966
crypto 4% +$231,321
tech 0% +$4,899
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US Treasury transactions on blockchain in 2025? SELL No 93¢ $56 193d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes 48¢ $107 209d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes 47¢ $104 209d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes 45¢ $300 210d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes 30¢ $100 211d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes 29¢ $97 213d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes 28¢ $7 213d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 213d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes 28¢ $84 214d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes 27¢ $90 214d
US Treasury transactions on blockchain in 2025? SELL No 93¢ $103 214d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes $2 215d
US Treasury transactions on blockchain in 2025? SELL No 91¢ $15 215d
US Treasury transactions on blockchain in 2025? SELL No 91¢ $101 215d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes 32¢ $71 225d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes 31¢ $31 225d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes 31¢ $38 225d
US Treasury transactions on blockchain in 2025? SELL No 84¢ $159 239d
US Treasury transactions on blockchain in 2025? SELL No 84¢ $5 240d
US Treasury transactions on blockchain in 2025? SELL No 84¢ $8 242d
US Treasury transactions on blockchain in 2025? SELL No 84¢ $10 243d
US Treasury transactions on blockchain in 2025? SELL No 84¢ $5 246d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? SELL Yes $2 254d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes $13 254d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? SELL Yes $3 255d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? SELL Yes $67 256d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? SELL Yes 11¢ $16 256d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 256d
US Treasury transactions on blockchain in 2025? SELL No 83¢ $64 256d
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025? SELL Yes 16¢ $22 256d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)+805.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -21.7% -29.1% 0% 0% -29.1%
≤30d 1 -21.7% -29.1% 0% 0% -29.1%
≤90d 1 -21.7% -29.1% 0% 0% -29.1%
all 82 +901.1% +805.7% 82% 78% +425.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +805.7% 78% +425.6%
10% ← realistic here +719.0% 77% +375.3%
15% +639.9% 74% +329.3%
20% +567.4% 70% +287.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,036.24 · official $4,036.24 (match) · 3500 history records