Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:21:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x42a2…8ab8
world · 47 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$13 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$13 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$31
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses21 / 24
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage522d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 2 History 45 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $26 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $26 +$2 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $27 −$1 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $28 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 06 $27 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $87 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $109 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $28 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $26 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $30 −$1 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $100 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $43 −$15 -34%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $31 +$5 +17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $63 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $87 +$5 +6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $67 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $46 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $38 +$3 +7%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $42 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $42 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $69 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 22 $32 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $33 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $73 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $257 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $300 +$2 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $308 −$2 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $9 $0 -3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $280 +$3 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $21 +$2 +9%
Will CF Monterrey win the FIFA Club World Cup? Apr 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $66 −$3 -4%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $256 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win on 2025-02-18? Mar 05 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 39-40°F on February Feb 16 $6 +$2 +30%
CSU Fullerton vs. CSU Bakersfield Feb 16 $9 +$2 +22%
Will Gage (Player 974) win the Beast Games? Feb 14 $4 +$2 +40%
St. John's vs. Villanova Feb 13 $4 +$5 +122%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on February Feb 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Fresno State vs. Nevada Feb 11 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Feb 04 $11 $0 +3%
Will the match between Tottenham and Liverpool end in a draw? Jan 09 $6 +$2 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 48% −$6
sports 39% +$14
other 6% −$15
finance 3% $0
politics 3% −$2
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $30 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 37h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 43h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $7 47h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $6 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $8 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $19 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $26 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $26 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $27 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $27 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $19 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $9 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $4 8d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $23 8d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $7 8d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $20 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $27 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $24 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $3 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $15 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $9 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $4 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $27 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 9d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $2 10d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $28 10d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $28 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.5% -9.1% 60% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 26 -1.2% -10.6% 38% 4% -9.9%
≤90d 36 -3.5% -12.7% 39% 3% -9.6%
all 45 -1.6% -11.0% 47% 16% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 16% -10.0%
10% -19.5% 9% -18.6%
15% -27.3% 4% -26.4%
20% -34.4% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.24 · official $30.97 (match) · 187 history records