Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:21:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42a2…dcaa crypto 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$320 (-3%) realized −$525 · open −$169
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate65%20W / 11L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$352per market
Trades / day126.0pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$286now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$525
7 days−$525
14 days−$525
30 days−$525
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$75
other 22% −$337
sports 8% −$282
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -9.8% -18.4% 65% 48% -13.8%
≤30d 31 -9.8% -18.4% 65% 48% -13.8%
≤90d 31 -9.8% -18.4% 65% 48% -13.8%
all 31 -9.8% -18.4% 65% 48% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover126.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.4% 48% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 26% -22.1%
15% -33.4% 19% -29.6%
20% -39.9% 13% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$540) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$185 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$286
Realized−$525
Unrealized−$169
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses20 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)31 / 34
History coverage1d
Avg bet$352
Trades / day126.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 45¢ 20¢ $297 $135 −$162 (-54%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Under 59¢ 56¢ $108 $103 −$5 (-4%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 56¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $350 $0 −$350 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 16¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $855 $0 −$855 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $235 $0 −$235 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $659 −$137 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $62 +$77 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $204 −$133 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $42 −$38 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $624 +$14 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $303 +$53 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $504 +$61 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $461 +$69 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $418 +$52 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $444 −$350 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$27 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $356 +$101 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $282 +$104 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $703 +$34 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $540 +$63 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $288 −$27 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $153 +$145 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $303 +$39 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $153 +$52 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $239 −$235 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $804 +$59 +7%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $799 +$57 +7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $870 −$855 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,010 +$461 +46%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 +$12 +12%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $111 −$110 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $302 4m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 35¢ $285 4m
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $51 7m
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 7m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 73¢ $170 8m
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $8 10m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $181 11m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $161 12m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 40¢ $28 13m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $53 31m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $14 31m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 40¢ $39 32m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 43m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 48m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 48m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 49m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 49m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $26 50m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $25 50m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 54m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 54m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $56 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $42 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $286.34 · official $286.35 (match) · 153 history records