Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:00:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
42 0x42a1…64a5 other 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$168 (+8%) realized +$149 · open +$19
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate68%28W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$554now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$119
7 days+$235
14 days+$185
30 days+$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$216
politics 19% +$42
world 5% −$51
sports 4% −$55
crypto 2% +$1
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +38.5% +25.3% 91% 82% +12.9%
≤30d 15 +9.3% -1.1% 73% 67% +4.6%
≤90d 18 +4.7% -5.3% 72% 61% +4.0%
all 41 -10.8% -19.3% 68% 37% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 37% -1.4%
10% -27.0% 29% -10.8%
15% -34.1% 24% -19.4%
20% -40.5% 17% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$23 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$554
Realized+$149
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses28 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)41 / 53
History coverage142d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 57¢ 69¢ $67 $81 +$14 (+20%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $75 $77 +$2 (+2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+1%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $57 $59 +$2 (+4%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 62¢ 68¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 62¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $46 +$2 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $84 +$9 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $145 +$86 +60%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $35 +$22 +62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$19 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$15 +60%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $174 +$83 +48%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $19 +$20 +104%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $148 −$147 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $148 +$71 +48%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 15 $160 +$25 +16%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $29 +$3 +10%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? Apr 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $2 +$1 +35%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting? Mar 19 $32 +$2 +6%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeti Mar 18 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runof Mar 02 $25 $0 +2%
Iran strike on US military by February 28? Mar 02 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Feb 27 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 22 $6 $0 +4%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti Feb 20 $18 +$1 +4%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 20 $4 $0 +6%
Will the US seize an Iran-linked tanker by Feb 28? Feb 15 $17 −$14 -84%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 14, 2026? Feb 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by Februa Feb 15 $19 +$1 +7%
Will Brazil record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 14 $5 +$5 +87%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 14 $22 +$2 +10%
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026? Feb 13 $9 +$1 +9%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? Feb 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 07 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 07 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? Feb 04 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Feb 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6? Feb 03 $3 −$3 -89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 2? Feb 03 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 2? Feb 02 $10 +$5 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $46 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $76 1h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 83¢ $58 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $71 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $35 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $84 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $145 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $24 6d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 53¢ $10 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $71 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 6d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 80¢ $53 7d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 44¢ $9 7d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $11 7d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 60¢ $12 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $36 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY $0 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $148 7d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 50¢ $149 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 31¢ $0 8d
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? BUY Yes 63¢ $37 21d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 59¢ $4 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $553.67 · official $553.68 (match) · 138 history records