Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:24:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x429f…ebc2 other 260 markets active 0h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%14W / 246L
Whale WR5%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$14
14 days−$25
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$43
sports 22% −$21
politics 10% −$12
culture 7% −$7
crypto 6% +$3
economics 6% −$4
world 2% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 260 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 5% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses14 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)5%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)260 / 260
History coverage139d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 260 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $419 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $258 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $474 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $356 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $226 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $201 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $362 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $84 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $358 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $148 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $336 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $604 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $299 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $333 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $523 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $150 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $184 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $67 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $230 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $147 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $195 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $68 −$1 -1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $208 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $255 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $889 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $739 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $327 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $485 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $291 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $648 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $180 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $251 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $518 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $515 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $284 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $506 $0 -0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $135 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $72 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $231 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $517 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $436 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $303 $0 +0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $357 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 29m
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 7h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 9h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 13h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 14h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 19h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 21h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $64 25h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $64 27h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 28h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 30h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $64 37h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $64 38h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 43h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 44h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $64 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $64 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $65 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $65 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $65 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $65 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $65 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $65 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $65 3d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $65 3d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $65 3d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $65 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1373 history records