Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x429e…890a politics 148 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,088 (+1%) realized +$2,087 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate18%27W / 120L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$1,434per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$428now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$25
14 days−$169
30 days−$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$119
other 36% +$87
sports 14% +$2,198
culture 2% −$5
world 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$3
economics 1% −$2
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% −$132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 37 -4.4% -13.5% 5% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 94 -11.7% -20.1% 6% 4% -8.7%
all 147 -1.4% -10.8% 18% 10% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 10% -8.7%
10% -19.4% 9% -17.4%
15% -27.2% 9% -25.4%
20% -34.3% 7% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 81% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,936) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$10 · ×11.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$428
Realized+$2,087
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses27 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)147 / 148
History coverage139d
Avg bet$1,434
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $427 $428 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $3,081 −$5 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $1,308 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,482 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 16 $1,527 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $2,541 −$3 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,329 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $3,058 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,430 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,524 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $3,033 −$5 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,457 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,462 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,580 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $2,377 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,314 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $3,848 −$5 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $52 −$52 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $7,128 −$9 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,492 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $888 +$2 +0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,059 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $3,163 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $1,417 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 28 $1,194 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $2,431 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,218 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,405 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $4,396 −$5 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 25 $55 +$77 +140%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $4,008 −$6 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,245 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $1,228 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $5,387 −$6 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $6,631 −$8 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $3,064 −$4 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $2,953 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $2,804 −$4 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,485 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,500 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,507 −$3 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,621 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $1,515 −$2 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,675 −$2 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $1,691 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 04 $2,021 +$1,498 +74%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $1,936 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $1,899 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,401 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,403 3h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,307 5h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,308 6h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,480 25h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,482 27h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,524 29h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,527 31h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,484 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,486 2d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,327 2d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,329 2d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,573 3d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,574 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,428 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,430 4d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,521 4d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,524 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $427 5d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,537 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,539 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,676 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,678 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,455 8d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,457 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,460 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,462 8d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,578 9d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,580 9d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,520 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $427.95 · official $427.95 (match) · 488 history records